TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9edf…0f44

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
125
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST659.2%6 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$147.52
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$23.41
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+578.4%+$1,049.74
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$151.62
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.17
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+962.4%+$284.48
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40.22
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$26.12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55.24
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$39.44
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$15.77
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$66.63
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.89
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$13.12
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$16.37
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15.65
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT3450%17 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.01
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+622.1%+$560.52
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.29
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$150.46
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+129.4%+$262.79
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+201.8%+$102.98
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+194.1%+$58.24
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+150%+$33.74
VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+100%+$17.97
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+168.3%+$30.45
Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+122.2%+$41.72
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+127.3%+$28.97
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+100%+$17
Pistons vs. Suns: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$17.57
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$12.25
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$12.75
Hornets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11.13
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.32
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$16.42
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+104.1%+$21.44
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Raptors vs. Thunderbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+242.2%+$72.65
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-77.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.98
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$84.86
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48.81
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$43.27
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$22.96
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$21.19
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$52.07
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+122.2%+$12.23
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$37.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+58.7%+$58.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$24.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.