TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,219

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,219 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9314…6bd7backed No1c10,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9224710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes37c3,729$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.2312232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes26c1,753$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.035535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x396e…f075backed Yes2c1,739$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.28250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+3,025%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c1,456$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.868320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c1,412$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.132,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes29c1,402$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.5963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes42c998.42$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.0411421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c791.84$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.922,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes61c757.88$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.6115430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes50c598.16$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No57c558.28$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes39c460$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.7918618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes55c458.12$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5652619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes39c438.56$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4827920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes73c410.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.277833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes32c384.63$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.2715819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c351.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.31,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes46c344.55$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.319550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes53c339.58$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes40c326.85$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8729225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes9c314.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.48659.2%6 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c296.8$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4237830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c282$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No47c275.03$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.751128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes66c264.95$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No67c254.97$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1723464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes40c254.29$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.492520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1fd…03d9backed Yes70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes71c227.21$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes45c222.95$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.715538.2%21 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c220.86$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8579735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No26c214.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.052128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes52c204.95$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9518224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes53c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.62035%7 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc2…6bd4backed Yes45c196.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes12c192.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.517714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes32c186.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.874035%14 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes63c183.24$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f1…25f6backed Yes77c174.68$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes62c173.91$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6610032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe557…23b4backed Yes59c171.68$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes33c155$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6210727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes29c151.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.091189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe636…e062backed No55c150.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes57c146.65$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3112543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…009fbacked Yes43c142$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae5…03fbbacked No69c140.61$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed No43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.353630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes38c136.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d2…84a7backed No58c132.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea17…3b29backed No58c130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes39c128.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.458918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f46…8279backed No35c123$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes53c122.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.510623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Yes61c120.07$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.761060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes42c118.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7625127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes42c118.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes35c114.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.079616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No60c113.31$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.363268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No72c103.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.781877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No26c102.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1210510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes15c99.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1541718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1b…eb68backed Yes27c85.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+267.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes40c81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2936018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f81…0e93backed Yes51c80.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.842532%8 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed No76c78.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes34c71.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0242719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c71.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes44c68.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.443525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c76…da3ebacked No57c66.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb37…6883backed Yes38c65.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2437…8480backed Yes27c65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.641729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdd…75c4backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes65c55.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.372524%6 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes47c54.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6224932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e6f…522bbacked No75c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.251612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5216741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.752462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef9…c53fbacked Yes71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.13363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3510834.3%37 W · 71 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615b…2ba8backed Yes71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc353…125bbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c49.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.639518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3b89…24cabacked Yes65c49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+149.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes23c47.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.57639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc9…81ecbacked Yes44c46.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e4…e646backed No57c45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes47c43.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes76c43.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.465240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes75c43.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.78850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cb…c0d4backed No57c43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes27c40.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a68…6630backed Yes35c40.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2b…6a52backed Yes53c37.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.791118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes68c37.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0214153.9%76 W · 65 L+13.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.