TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,296 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes1c15,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.992859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes1c13,333$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8424710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes16c4,286$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.4963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes0c3,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.525617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c1,788$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.928320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c1,509$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.252,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes14c1,039$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.465535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes48c998.42$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8911421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes62c719.75$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes21c649.37$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.252520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa146…6bb1backed No58c616.24$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes20c605$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5626516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes37c575.2$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6229225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff1…121abacked Yes62c561.35$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes28c559.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8315819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes29c526.56$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8152619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c525.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.972,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes52c477.37$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7118618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No68c475.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes32c461.58$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6327920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes16c420.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.272524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes27c371.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63af…233dbacked Yes43c343.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes29c298.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4924732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes17c298.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c294$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2451845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5afe…6d5abacked Yes62c292.48$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c282$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No41c274.39$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes19c273.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.78639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes26c264.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes14c253.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.742727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c247.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c228.9$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.524932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes49c227.57$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.081533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes62c212.04$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes39c212$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.94829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes37c190.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6419527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1d…d516backed Yes31c190.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…5dd0backed Yes48c190.45$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0451…b87abacked Yes11c188.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes49c184.24$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6743933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes30c183.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.079616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes17c180$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4714153.9%76 W · 65 L+13.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a68…6630backed Yes36c179.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519a…95f2backed No55c179.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes59c169.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1110032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes9c165.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15659.2%6 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes24c165.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.341189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…af22backed Yes70c161.66$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.993043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes50c161.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1915430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c160.35$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No33c156.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3723464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked No44c154.04$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0425127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes23c152.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes26c151.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.151827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…567abacked No44c151$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed No63c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.61060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9149…6661backed Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2437…8480backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752c…817dbacked Yes35c149$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66b…cc2dbacked Yes35c146$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48c…335bbacked No55c145.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes23c144.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.65175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2d…1eb5backed No65c142.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe636…e062backed Yes28c142.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes31c138.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.783158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bfc…fe3cbacked Yes35c138$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes29c137.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1231743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes32c136.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e37…d9d2backed No68c135.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7d…8153backed Yes35c135$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No30c134.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1712216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d8…be73backed No76c131.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.33327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe557…23b4backed Yes78c119.8$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8928…4887backed Yes76c118.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes63c113.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-84.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9f…61dcbacked Yes43c111.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes11c111.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.967714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes57c105.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes49c104.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6412543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes57c104.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6a…7f91backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0628016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.533027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7887…3683backed No53c98.94$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes43c97.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4310727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes31c96.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No35c93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+93.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No74c91.84$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.041877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f07…768fbacked Yes47c83.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes75c81.45$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.258923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes45c81.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1236018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7950…975abacked Yes46c78.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1736…3900backed No70c78.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc2…6bd4backed Yes38c76.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9d…8bddbacked No40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a6…580ebacked Yes44c72.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe371…186cbacked Yes56c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.