Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a6f1f6c6c5f9d41e099fd017ae646fbbecd06ca9ecdf1a963fb4551329270c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,296 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 1c | 13,333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,286$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.49 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,788$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 1,509$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,039$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 48c | 998.42$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.89 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 62c | 719.75$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.34 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 21c | 649.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6bb1backed No | 58c | 616.24$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 20c | 605$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 575.2$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…121abacked Yes | 62c | 561.35$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 28c | 559.44$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 526.56$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 525.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 52c | 477.37$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 475.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 32c | 461.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes | 16c | 420.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 27c | 371.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…233dbacked Yes | 43c | 343.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 29c | 298.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes | 17c | 298.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 294$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afe…6d5abacked Yes | 62c | 292.48$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 282$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 41c | 274.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.79 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 19c | 273.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 26c | 264.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 253.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 247.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 228.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…0486backed Yes | 49c | 227.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 62c | 212.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 39c | 212$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 37c | 190.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…d516backed Yes | 31c | 190.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…5dd0backed Yes | 48c | 190.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 11c | 188.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 184.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 30c | 183.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a68…6630backed Yes | 36c | 179.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…95f2backed No | 55c | 179.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…978dbacked Yes | 59c | 169.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 100 | 32%32 W · 68 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 9c | 165.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 165.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Yes | 70c | 161.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 161.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 160.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 33c | 156.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked No | 44c | 154.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 23c | 152.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 26c | 151.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…567abacked No | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed No | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…6661backed Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…8480backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…817dbacked Yes | 35c | 149$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…cc2dbacked Yes | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…335bbacked No | 55c | 145.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 23c | 144.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…1eb5backed No | 65c | 142.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…e062backed Yes | 28c | 142.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 31c | 138.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…fe3cbacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 29c | 137.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 136.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…d9d2backed No | 68c | 135.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…8153backed Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 30c | 134.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed No | 76c | 131.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…23b4backed Yes | 78c | 119.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…4887backed Yes | 76c | 118.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 63c | 113.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…61dcbacked Yes | 43c | 111.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 11c | 111.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 57c | 105.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 49c | 104.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 57c | 104.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6a…7f91backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7887…3683backed No | 53c | 98.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 43c | 97.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 31c | 96.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 35c | 93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 74c | 91.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f07…768fbacked Yes | 47c | 83.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 75c | 81.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 45c | 81.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…975abacked Yes | 46c | 78.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…3900backed No | 70c | 78.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…6bd4backed Yes | 38c | 76.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…8bddbacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…580ebacked Yes | 44c | 72.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…186cbacked Yes | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.