TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes1c17,575$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,462$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.322,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c4,499$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes10c1,957$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7615819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes28c858.12$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.482520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes19c766$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes16c706$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cec…c9d8backed Yes16c630.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes19c511$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c505.03$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes25c444$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11026411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc133…5232backed Yes23c442.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes17c349$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac9…d570backed Yes28c335.23$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes31c320.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c313.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.082,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5241…8843backed No75c312.06$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.01580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes23c259.9$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes14c252.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.021128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd28b…fdf5backed Yes26c209.69$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.563221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c191.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.77556%42 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes18c185.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.963231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes24c180.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes29c150.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1424732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes20c149.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c135.14$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9626167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes9c132.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5359225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.618618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8716741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e3…59cdbacked Yes27c129.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c125.25$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.619058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes17c119.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4924932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c119.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8551845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No76c117.31$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes30c113.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7427920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes13c109.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes33c99.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910335.9%37 W · 66 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+108%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes23c99.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.618224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes16c92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes23c88.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.272074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c86.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9179735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c81.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0451…b87abacked Yes22c77.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e9…6efebacked Yes29c68.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes23c66.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc795…7a2dbacked Yes33c64.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes19c64.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Yes23c64.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7473…948dbacked Yes30c61.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No70c50.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.096243.5%27 W · 35 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8328…935fbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105719.3%11 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-32%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…d368backed Yes29c44.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98b…d34bbacked Yes33c40.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No76c32.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7922770.9%161 W · 66 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2b…74e3backed No70c28.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b7…e117backed No76c27.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No73c24.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No71c20.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.843971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.