Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad27836d06a0c6cae2e855f7f5559f630963e8fa6318fdade0383f4c06a999f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 17,575$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,462$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,499$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,957$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 28c | 858.12$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.48 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 19c | 766$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 16c | 706$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…c9d8backed Yes | 16c | 630.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 19c | 511$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 505.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 25c | 444$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc133…5232backed Yes | 23c | 442.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 17c | 349$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac9…d570backed Yes | 28c | 335.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes | 31c | 320.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 313.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…8843backed No | 75c | 312.06$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…4622backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 23c | 259.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 252.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…fdf5backed Yes | 26c | 209.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 277 | 7.9%22 W · 255 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 191.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 18c | 185.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 24c | 180.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 29c | 150.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 135.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 132.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…59cdbacked Yes | 27c | 129.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 125.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 119.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 119.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 117.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 30c | 113.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 13c | 109.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 123 | 8.9%11 W · 112 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 23c | 99.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 23c | 88.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 86.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 81.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 22c | 77.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…6efebacked Yes | 29c | 68.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 66.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc795…7a2dbacked Yes | 33c | 64.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 64.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 23c | 64.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…948dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 70c | 50.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…47a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -32%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…d368backed Yes | 29c | 44.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d34bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…74e3backed No | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…e117backed No | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 73c | 24.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 71c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.