TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6dc6…0f6a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 55 out of 100; worst Tweets at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT8918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.85
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.2
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.84
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.11
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+157.9%+$157.9
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+183.5%+$98.87
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,240
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)backed St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)backed Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5)backed Furman Paladins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,040.81
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$520
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-2.5)backed Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 136.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 138.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$520
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-1.5)backed Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)backed Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$411.56
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$10.27
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 155.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)backed Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)backed Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,040
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Idaho Vandals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5)backed Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$534Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$534
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,119.99
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,860Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$1,140
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-10.5)backed Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,020
All 21 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$940
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.