TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8974…fc30backed Yes11c4,074$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21cb…5f69backed Yes9c3,686$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe5…a425backed Yes10c2,934$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+614.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8008…f88dbacked Yes11c2,908$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes17c2,845$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4170616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…f06abacked Yes10c2,840$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97f…7705backed Yes10c2,714$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…87d0backed Yes10c2,684$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f2…ed98backed Yes10c2,554$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c2,283$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ac…ff7fbacked Yes11c2,234$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c2,173$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.012,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x192c…184fbacked Yes23c2,133$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+109.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes6c2,031$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.571249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3173…d433backed Yes10c1,910$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14bf…fcacbacked Yes11c1,854$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cd…9ffabacked Yes10c1,779$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c4…a54abacked Yes10c1,774$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af9…407dbacked Yes11c1,648$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes9c1,600$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.032611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9f…134fbacked Yes11c1,587$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,569$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.242,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8142…f108backed Yes11c1,550$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc024…5907backed Yes10c1,464$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes10c1,446$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.214112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9f…df54backed Yes12c1,416$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f9…7b39backed Yes10c1,354$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6f…2c98backed Yes10c1,327$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes4c1,307$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4642719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb56b…3630backed Yes10c1,306$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c1,293$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.341756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd6…df61backed Yes12c1,276$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05fd…ddc1backed Yes10c1,245$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e1…7858backed Yes10c1,244$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e5…441dbacked Yes8c1,238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+107.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…416bbacked Yes10c1,233$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes18c1,200$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.850913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…22e5backed Yes12c1,150$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae2…1adebacked Yes10c1,129$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b95…91d5backed Yes10c1,124$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes17c1,111$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.55910.2%6 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5330…99cfbacked Yes12c1,094$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad6…0b82backed Yes10c1,033$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes10c1,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008420.2%17 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes6c987.48$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.731,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf770…b9afbacked Yes12c970$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+614.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85fe…4d47backed Yes10c934$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5e…9161backed Yes10c868$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992f…e58abacked Yes10c865$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes20c861.88$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7158…4eaebacked Yes10c841$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b1c…fe97backed Yes10c813$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes18c757.85$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4352619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c747.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.121216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31b…4648backed Yes12c722$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes6c715.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bc…5377backed Yes22c695.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccd…ec51backed Yes11c686$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2d…3862backed Yes10c674$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd7…fe1dbacked Yes10c667$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes13c621$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3917917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x375a…8d6bbacked Yes11c620$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c611.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.731,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…d42cbacked Yes10c605$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1a…fea8backed Yes11c603$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes10c599.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes21c568.26$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5359225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8335…71a6backed Yes10c532$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes19c528.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcd…3e7bbacked Yes10c517$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c52…7e35backed Yes3c499.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd318…a9b9backed Yes8c479.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df0…1a70backed Yes11c451$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf20…67aebacked Yes7c400.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked Yes25c392.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92ba…bfa4backed Yes3c390.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes5c389.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.29575.3%3 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No72c366.32$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4150319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes6c345.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3916013.1%21 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes5c334.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0515430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…10afbacked Yes15c331.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ace…ef05backed Yes25c322.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.151612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes11c319.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613614.7%20 W · 116 L-0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes6c310.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.428712.6%11 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c309.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes15c300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2828034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3731722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes11c295.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe545…b983backed No77c289.84$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes17c286.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.839627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes22c278.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6234127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes23c264.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.232116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c30…a7fcbacked Yes17c263.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+155.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes5c252.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.429113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3b…08c6backed Yes8c250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.47010%7 W · 63 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked Yes12c235.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710048%48 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b25…e9a6backed Yes16c227.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8992…f259backed Yes7c223.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.