TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$485,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$442,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c10,595$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c6,977$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.732,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c6,131$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4436411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,222$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0635024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes3c4,912$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.911249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes3c4,366$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3117917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8275…d327backed Yes6c3,448$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0393…0769backed Yes6c3,295$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b0…30f4backed Yes6c2,842$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6f…4102backed Yes6c2,651$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e04…7cbdbacked Yes6c2,609$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb58e…b54cbacked Yes6c2,512$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes3c2,502$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8884616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,444$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.872,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c2,283$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…5993backed Yes6c2,193$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dc…c790backed Yes6c2,029$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e7…4f23backed Yes6c1,983$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf596…941ebacked Yes6c1,953$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af8…ec2cbacked Yes6c1,903$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+941.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcefd…ff7bbacked Yes6c1,884$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c2…1bbebacked Yes6c1,883$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c49…5b45backed Yes6c1,834$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb5…bb28backed Yes7c1,823$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b68…95efbacked Yes6c1,822$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…7a75backed Yes6c1,800$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4032…e318backed Yes6c1,799$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a47…7599backed Yes3c1,769$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes1c1,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c19…ee7ebacked Yes7c1,740$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e82…ce23backed Yes7c1,679$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b99…fe54backed Yes7c1,596$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaf8…d6f4backed Yes6c1,595$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes2c1,568$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5342719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c7…c1dfbacked Yes6c1,566$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…0fa8backed Yes6c1,544$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes4c1,491$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8441230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf36…82b8backed Yes7c1,490$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec9d…4142backed Yes6c1,489$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e78bbacked Yes7c1,485$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…4a57backed Yes7c1,470$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89c…7cc7backed Yes8c1,448$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa097…0e8dbacked Yes6c1,409$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…eac2backed Yes6c1,386$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…8488backed Yes6c1,374$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…2b1fbacked Yes6c1,326$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acc…96c5backed Yes7c1,325$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7043…80afbacked Yes7c1,320$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+941.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c4…82d5backed Yes5c1,300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes3c1,295$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.86506%3 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes3c1,294$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,285$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1712216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d30…33c8backed Yes7c1,283$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0574…fd94backed Yes6c1,281$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb67a…2152backed Yes6c1,272$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fc…7d75backed Yes6c1,244$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0503…a390backed Yes6c1,238$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,228$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.677727.3%21 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe86d…2a21backed Yes6c1,201$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971b…ddcdbacked Yes8c1,179$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda7b…6a04backed Yes8c1,146$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d15…5175backed Yes6c1,129$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0621…2d28backed Yes6c1,111$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f8…58edbacked Yes7c1,102$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c4…0ff0backed Yes6c1,102$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7763…569cbacked Yes8c1,087$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8f…2a02backed Yes6c1,080$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b1…97cdbacked Yes5c1,067$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…5a39backed Yes6c1,065$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75e…72a7backed Yes6c1,040$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a3…f38dbacked Yes4c1,032$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c1,024$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.681756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…7615backed Yes8c1,012$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes3c1,004$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,002$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.061,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1d…30e0backed Yes8c995$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes4c978.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.871,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d4…b875backed Yes7c964$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb81…d4d3backed Yes5c963$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe698…a6c9backed Yes5c963$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa13a…5498backed Yes8c960$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes7c953.42$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.284112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd689…ed1fbacked Yes5c952$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30da…5b6abacked Yes4c952$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22c…6a97backed Yes7c950$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a41…cda7backed Yes7c948$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…19d5backed Yes7c942$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1f…ad21backed Yes8c940$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9f…a695backed Yes7c940$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3dc…2a22backed Yes5c937$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0355…8193backed Yes8c919$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…93b8backed Yes5c915$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+363%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b8…3418backed Yes5c915$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c6…eea4backed Yes5c893$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes5c867.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.239627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9743…8375backed Yes7c867$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c2…c1e6backed Yes6c862$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eef…e73cbacked Yes4c840$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf692…d35cbacked Yes6c837$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf007…02e9backed Yes8c835$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.