TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,206 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes5c2,524$129 inLost-$128.571249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes3c2,000$62 inLost-$61.9219927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,908$27 inLost-$26.762,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8a…4541backed Yes2c1,741$40 inLost-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5b…dcf0backed Yes1c1,635$16 inLost-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…e434backed Yes2c1,633$38 inLost-$37.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c72…020abacked Yes2c1,562$36 inLost-$35.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d9…7438backed Yes2c1,537$35 inLost-$35.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes2c1,340$33 inLost-$33.47575.3%3 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e12…061bbacked Yes1c1,292$13 inLost-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654d…39edbacked Yes1c1,084$11 inLost-$10.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9485…211ebacked Yes3c955$25 inLost-$24.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd838…c5cfbacked Yes3c902$23 inLost-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b2…042cbacked Yes3c872$23 inLost-$22.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd88…2f42backed Yes3c823$21 inLost-$21.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa428…18cfbacked Yes3c787$20 inLost-$20.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d8…bdcfbacked Yes3c785$20 inLost-$20.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405e…1240backed Yes3c776$20 inLost-$20.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb94…2e04backed Yes3c722$19 inLost-$18.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c588.22$14 inLost-$141,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c499.15$11 inLost-$10.822,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c465.41$20 inLost-$19.961756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes3c462.75$15 inLost-$154425%11 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes3c423.34$11 inLost-$10.7378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes8c308.59$25 inLost-$25.245313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.