Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4347973bee554772fbd3c7a00c4372eedfb7c9a0d3a46267cf6a060665c6bd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 0c | 4,167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…6d77backed Yes | 2c | 3,232$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,828$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…74d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,532$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…fe7abacked Yes | 3c | 2,288$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…2771backed Yes | 3c | 2,145$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 2,071$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,044$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…e3a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,952$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…b901backed Yes | 2c | 1,930$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…ccdbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,812$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,653$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…8e93backed Yes | 3c | 1,437$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd299…b988backed Yes | 3c | 1,436$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…68e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…065abacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…f76cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,226$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…3de1backed Yes | 3c | 1,094$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 3c | 1,091$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…f960backed Yes | 3c | 968$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…b81cbacked Yes | 3c | 815$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…1754backed Yes | 3c | 778$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8db1backed Yes | 3c | 770$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…349abacked Yes | 2c | 761$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…eb0fbacked Yes | 3c | 728$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…dbb9backed Yes | 2c | 727$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 701.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…5f55backed Yes | 3c | 638$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8625…de59backed Yes | 3c | 606$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…bf8fbacked Yes | 3c | 599$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…db53backed Yes | 3c | 575$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +431.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 501.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 494.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 4c | 490.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…c4b5backed Yes | 3c | 475$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…57d4backed Yes | 3c | 456$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes | 3c | 377.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…680cbacked Yes | 3c | 373.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 4c | 324.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2498…e6a7backed Yes | 6c | 324.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in March 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in March 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.