TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c8a…4354backed Yes6c4,106$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1247…3949backed Yes7c3,680$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes0c3,566$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb353…f7e2backed Yes6c3,337$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…ca67backed Yes5c3,094$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c2,966$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.472,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bf…6a05backed Yes5c2,790$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…71d8backed Yes2c2,714$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dd…0f4fbacked Yes2c2,588$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e4…4f40backed Yes2c2,422$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971b…ddcdbacked Yes2c2,340$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37f4…58bdbacked Yes2c2,295$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d72…1a00backed Yes6c2,278$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd64…0a9bbacked Yes2c2,266$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…b4d9backed Yes2c2,208$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf54…2d2fbacked Yes6c2,181$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d6…1445backed Yes4c2,151$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba21…06e2backed Yes2c2,095$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c15…10f8backed Yes4c2,010$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes3c1,964$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.11249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f5…df24backed Yes2c1,901$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x393d…1e7abacked Yes5c1,772$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c8…315abacked Yes4c1,684$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18fc…726bbacked Yes4c1,624$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dc…c790backed Yes4c1,592$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8105…314abacked Yes5c1,532$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e6a…39aabacked Yes4c1,521$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…1fa1backed Yes4c1,435$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb971…57d4backed Yes5c1,399$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae7…3de1backed Yes4c1,360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d2…e5bdbacked Yes4c1,360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+254.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x569b…e1b5backed Yes5c1,360$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62bf…c4b5backed Yes4c1,319$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…67dcbacked Yes3c1,305$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e35…34d2backed Yes5c1,285$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7213…6835backed Yes4c1,271$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842e…cc18backed Yes5c1,247$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…7a75backed Yes4c1,246$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes4c1,217$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c93…9562backed Yes5c1,214$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fa…3374backed Yes4c1,204$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,162$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.612,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045c…4b2abacked Yes4c1,153$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa4…805ebacked Yes4c1,150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab3c…daa5backed Yes6c1,112$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…fbb0backed Yes4c1,112$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc8…e8a8backed Yes5c1,049$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe446…b1b9backed Yes3c1,022$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…cbd8backed Yes5c1,022$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc548…65dcbacked Yes2c1,013$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8f…0797backed Yes3c969$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…04a3backed Yes7c943$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f11…2efbbacked Yes7c904$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a7…53c5backed Yes7c901$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b34…c607backed Yes5c891$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1997…d565backed Yes1c875.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0624…4487backed Yes3c869$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd864…ca1bbacked Yes7c864$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fdb…364cbacked Yes5c848$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149d…8d63backed Yes2c818.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf2…fe7abacked Yes7c778$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed Yes2c762.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aff…56f4backed Yes7c755$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+474.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bd8…c58bbacked Yes5c714$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes3c663.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06575.3%3 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…1506backed Yes7c625$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c599.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.721756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…2966backed Yes5c591$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd796…7f23backed Yes7c555$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes4c530.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.381921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2596…3ba8backed Yes3c525$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes7c504$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3db…f426backed Yes5c472$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…bcc7backed Yes5c465$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e0…b25abacked Yes7c411$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+431.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe892…5cabbacked Yes4c402$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3061…e82dbacked Yes4c379$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes6c316.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7392…b93abacked Yes7c280$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6f…2561backed Yes7c275$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes6c262.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.874112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad7c…8cd7backed Yes6c165.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.