TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$793,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$757,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c8,029$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.452,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes3c5,765$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6732716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6b…a764backed Yes10c4,272$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7aa…19f1backed Yes11c3,709$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221a…b2b0backed Yes13c3,686$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x265c…7e6bbacked Yes10c3,600$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc14…95e1backed Yes13c3,590$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5c…926abacked Yes12c3,525$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…1b42backed Yes10c3,453$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736a…c882backed Yes10c3,437$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4751…3609backed Yes10c3,392$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…a9d9backed Yes10c3,289$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes12c3,284$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.7663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes6c3,276$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.161249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa83a…bd1abacked Yes6c3,079$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc024…5907backed Yes8c3,030$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fb…4804backed Yes10c3,007$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe97…d3dfbacked Yes10c2,940$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4200…2729backed Yes5c2,928$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb81…d4d3backed Yes10c2,894$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…e6cebacked Yes10c2,783$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0208…7c2abacked Yes10c2,768$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bd…dee9backed Yes10c2,732$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064e…7313backed Yes6c2,712$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ee…f08cbacked Yes7c2,594$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc86…5f9fbacked Yes10c2,562$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa47a…4b4cbacked Yes10c2,517$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1c13backed Yes10c2,461$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfc…7e1cbacked Yes6c2,434$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0f…4b9dbacked Yes7c2,430$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3943…f3c1backed Yes9c2,363$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba65…3977backed Yes10c2,319$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf145…8fdabacked Yes8c2,302$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…be04backed Yes7c2,286$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c2,273$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b3…ef7ebacked Yes6c2,187$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…c802backed Yes9c2,140$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…19d5backed Yes11c2,102$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1c…ed69backed Yes10c2,097$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…6f55backed Yes9c2,054$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c9…9d7ebacked Yes6c2,031$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5186…0abebacked Yes6c2,006$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff8…ca48backed Yes9c1,941$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce4b…2389backed Yes7c1,941$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb145…3e70backed Yes13c1,932$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd4c9…8ab7backed Yes7c1,912$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2923…4226backed Yes13c1,904$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0bc…1e74backed Yes6c1,893$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…4421backed Yes10c1,873$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c3…30d4backed Yes10c1,773$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9acc…9533backed Yes10c1,768$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9edb…8e28backed Yes7c1,768$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,745$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.842,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9a…1359backed Yes5c1,695$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da1…6f12backed Yes6c1,692$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6469…b29bbacked Yes10c1,684$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d10…6fedbacked Yes5c1,679$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…848abacked Yes4c1,663$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9829…0ab4backed Yes7c1,649$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…d79cbacked Yes7c1,639$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3503…323cbacked Yes10c1,635$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e8…a619backed Yes13c1,635$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…44b4backed Yes10c1,616$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd66…0755backed Yes7c1,599$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+575.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0073…3ab0backed Yes10c1,580$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa7…e738backed Yes10c1,570$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cd…8722backed Yes9c1,557$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0b…d5bebacked Yes5c1,552$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ce…b5adbacked Yes5c1,535$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66a…08c5backed Yes10c1,519$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0b…7e3bbacked Yes7c1,507$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408f…cd18backed Yes10c1,480$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…c578backed Yes6c1,467$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5a…66d7backed Yes7c1,452$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccef…12aebacked Yes6c1,450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05fd…ddc1backed Yes10c1,448$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a9…e623backed Yes10c1,435$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d1…b4bcbacked Yes10c1,431$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b90…f084backed Yes7c1,431$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb158…d295backed Yes10c1,429$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8d…2ce5backed Yes8c1,421$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a85…6adbbacked Yes10c1,392$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedab…81a5backed Yes5c1,351$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf76…1a22backed Yes9c1,340$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bb…f038backed Yes5c1,336$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…3637backed Yes6c1,335$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b15…986cbacked Yes9c1,333$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f5…6fa8backed Yes10c1,314$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9a…308cbacked Yes8c1,311$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…738abacked Yes5c1,310$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95b…b218backed Yes5c1,304$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8335…71a6backed Yes6c1,298$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecb…ea84backed Yes10c1,288$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8640…6e8cbacked Yes7c1,284$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31bf…1590backed Yes3c1,279$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4632…8f1bbacked Yes9c1,277$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf64…89b9backed Yes6c1,270$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x639d…76ddbacked Yes7c1,250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…fdfcbacked Yes10c1,244$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cd…9ffabacked Yes9c1,237$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.