TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$460,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$439,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3d4…2872backed Yes11c5,843$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,223.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b0…f22bbacked Yes11c4,225$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd6…4faabacked Yes10c3,802$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,440.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick10cpaid+952.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc9…a089backed Yes11c3,468$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c3,427$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.152,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f65…3924backed Yes9c3,128$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,012.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes18c3,042$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.2170616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d97…d3a9backed Yes10c2,841$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3f…545dbacked Yes11c2,772$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1df…a9f4backed Yes9c2,686$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4557…7d15backed Yes10c2,650$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+855.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…7e98backed Yes11c2,620$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3366…27e0backed Yes11c2,609$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd538…ca67backed Yes9c2,528$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0e…b741backed Yes10c2,522$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+861.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…56f4backed Yes9c2,497$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+474.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x369f…55d0backed Yes9c2,471$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9559…42e5backed Yes11c2,453$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5f…fbb0backed Yes9c2,398$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x808f…6efbbacked Yes9c2,397$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+474.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437a…b2c1backed Yes10c2,274$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+861.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c2,273$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.1276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21b…dff6backed Yes10c2,259$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+250.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…95b5backed Yes9c2,251$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bed…b829backed Yes11c2,206$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+129.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd05…ec7cbacked Yes11c2,204$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+358.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…9bc6backed Yes11c2,197$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+817.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b2f…2e1ebacked Yes9c2,188$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+987%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa4…805ebacked Yes9c2,179$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52bf…840fbacked Yes10c2,093$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+380.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec2…5a6dbacked Yes9c2,092$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2a…cc99backed Yes9c2,089$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9345…60fdbacked Yes9c2,079$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c42…adf2backed Yes11c2,061$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9529…923cbacked Yes9c2,053$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+963.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc38…b96bbacked Yes11c2,026$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f7…5903backed Yes9c1,994$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+283.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2591…d2d9backed Yes11c1,987$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+819.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59e…d98cbacked Yes11c1,968$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+819.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eda…0425backed Yes9c1,961$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+443.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba7…47a0backed Yes9c1,936$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+987%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e92…7558backed Yes9c1,921$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+474.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…4a05backed Yes9c1,899$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x891f…ee2abacked Yes9c1,882$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+992.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…c578backed Yes9c1,879$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ce…b5adbacked Yes9c1,877$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68f…e9f6backed Yes8c1,804$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,182.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe686…832bbacked Yes11c1,770$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2417…c8cdbacked Yes9c1,761$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+283.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x009f…32febacked Yes9c1,722$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,062.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x738a…4288backed Yes9c1,671$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+445.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…144cbacked Yes9c1,604$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes12c1,589$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.551027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2beb…066ebacked Yes11c1,546$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x347a…c008backed Yes11c1,517$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a21…6df3backed Yes11c1,513$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes8c1,482$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.41249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e0…b25abacked Yes9c1,417$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+431.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82d…f311backed Yes11c1,385$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+359.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ea…57e8backed Yes9c1,375$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+963.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x589d…99a4backed Yes9c1,366$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0913…a5d6backed Yes9c1,364$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+278.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf56…6944backed Yes11c1,330$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick9cpaid+363%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22c…6a97backed Yes11c1,317$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a4…8c7bbacked Yes9c1,313$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…9114backed Yes11c1,295$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5a…5e87backed Yes9c1,294$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,062.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3782…6e25backed Yes11c1,286$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick11cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd66…0755backed Yes7c1,269$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+575.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes8c1,263$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.0219726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6095…db53backed Yes9c1,254$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+431.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b09…d445backed Yes9c1,203$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+987%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes20c1,200$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.6284616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64df…56cabacked Yes9c1,174$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+975.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6230…d6c3backed Yes9c1,173$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+443.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x687b…f8a7backed Yes5c1,171$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.171118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+237.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x465a…8aacbacked Yes9c1,160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+963.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc501…0e55backed Yes8c1,141$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0521100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,182.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86d2…e5bdbacked Yes9c1,135$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+254.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac7…4cf9backed Yes11c1,078$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes13c1,054$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.4219927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc76f…1e97backed Yes7c1,042$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,251.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes7c1,035$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.821,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6915…2354backed Yes8c1,024$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick8cpaid+541%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfe…9fa8backed Yes9c1,019$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+448.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a44…cc54backed Yes9c1,013$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+258.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x395a…e221backed Yes9c997$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+254.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c991$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.951756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x407a…6585backed Yes9c981$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+168.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ea…fb4dbacked Yes9c979$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+975.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8f8…8e61backed Yes9c979$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+963.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc45a…1f80backed Yes11c974$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c927$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.292,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2a…39e0backed Yes11c891$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+214.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e36…1709backed Yes9c883$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad9…e969backed Yes9c875$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…f1b0backed Yes9c859$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a1…5f20backed Yes11c858$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+843.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b54…34ebbacked Yes9c853$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick8cpaid+455.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1f…fa20backed Yes9c848$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+975.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.