TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,527 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c40,738$41 inLost-$40.741290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c38,000$38 inLost-$38470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c38,000$38 inLost-$38540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…76fabacked Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c26dbacked Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…c011backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d3…da39backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9041…d1cfbacked Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.7120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735a…8097backed Yes0c13,696$14 inLost-$13.770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…5101backed Yes0c12,038$12 inLost-$12.04120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…d96fbacked Yes0c10,039$10 inLost-$10.0480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0b…a9c9backed Yes1c3,687$21 inLost-$20.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes1c1,492$15 inLost-$14.735313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes3c303.49$10 inLost-$10.151018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.