TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5782…54a9backed Yes3c4,215$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c3,768$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.242,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x492d…42d4backed Yes4c3,611$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2584…2891backed Yes6c3,107$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff8…ca48backed Yes4c3,087$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3396…dc8ebacked Yes5c2,802$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d6…1445backed Yes5c2,789$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d4…9b22backed Yes5c2,725$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e27…76ebbacked Yes6c2,559$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ccd…ec51backed Yes4c2,517$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f69…8cd5backed Yes3c2,516$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…be04backed Yes4c2,483$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes9c2,358$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.784112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c2,325$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.51027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes3c2,249$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.581249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fdb…364cbacked Yes5c2,116$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…b810backed Yes5c2,096$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714b…cf00backed Yes4c2,065$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f06…8677backed Yes5c2,030$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b2…576ebacked Yes5c1,890$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x023f…6d32backed Yes5c1,807$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2da…fb05backed Yes4c1,795$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff0…d4e9backed Yes4c1,788$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d25…0d0dbacked Yes4c1,616$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3708…a7debacked Yes6c1,609$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…cbd8backed Yes5c1,594$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4928…1310backed Yes6c1,569$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8008…f88dbacked Yes4c1,567$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe723…4bafbacked Yes4c1,547$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b27…344cbacked Yes4c1,532$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf933…8db1backed Yes4c1,480$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…12c0backed Yes5c1,430$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dcd…167dbacked Yes4c1,425$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4186…fd45backed Yes2c1,385$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…1506backed Yes5c1,355$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ef…9debbacked Yes4c1,353$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfc…611abacked Yes2c1,326$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…bcc7backed Yes5c1,264$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b4…6b74backed Yes2c1,247$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045c…4b2abacked Yes6c1,237$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3baf…21b4backed Yes6c1,164$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eef…e73cbacked Yes2c1,139$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes4c1,125$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes9c1,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd1…c961backed Yes4c1,101$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3520…47fcbacked Yes5c1,023$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0e…d1a5backed Yes3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe686…832bbacked Yes2c991$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick7cpaid+371.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes3c980$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3911421.1%24 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb971…57d4backed Yes5c975$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8625…de59backed Yes6c935$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…6864backed Yes5c925$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c869.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.262,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0d…64acbacked Yes3c831$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e5…267dbacked Yes3c817$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367f…fbdcbacked Yes4c808$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ac…5fadbacked Yes3c799$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad59…345dbacked Yes3c750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e4…0693backed Yes6c727$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf145…8fdabacked Yes2c716$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c643.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.411756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4004…0972backed Yes6c643$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…df54backed Yes3c586$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…0b21backed Yes2c572$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes4c561.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.76575.3%3 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…59cabacked Yes4c551$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aec…1236backed Yes5c538.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3648…0c34backed Yes4c510$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes6c478.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c451.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe986…5d49backed Yes2c425$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8d…2ce5backed Yes3c416$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62bf…c4b5backed Yes6c407$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad6…0b82backed Yes4c397$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3db…f426backed Yes6c387$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes4c380.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512218.9%23 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba55…cdecbacked Yes4c273$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes7c270.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%11 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2498…e6a7backed Yes6c265.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+124.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes5c227.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.