TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$393,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c4,578$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.092,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258a…395bbacked Yes3c3,864$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98d3…aa78backed Yes3c2,713$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5d…a7f9backed Yes4c2,675$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff0…d4e9backed Yes7c2,567$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30da…5b6abacked Yes3c2,443$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcc…a613backed Yes3c2,399$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6f…a5a6backed Yes3c2,280$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b8…a932backed Yes3c2,202$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…bb85backed Yes3c2,182$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab40…9326backed Yes3c2,153$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eef…e73cbacked Yes3c2,118$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5e…326fbacked Yes4c2,114$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes2c1,934$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.31249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…174cbacked Yes3c1,918$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef3…17bcbacked Yes3c1,917$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae8…b915backed Yes3c1,906$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x299a…8606backed Yes7c1,808$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18d…b2d0backed Yes3c1,794$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb80d…2bc8backed Yes7c1,783$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac1…d64bbacked Yes4c1,746$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…009cbacked Yes3c1,743$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6469…b29bbacked Yes3c1,733$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735b…196abacked Yes4c1,715$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdb3…34b7backed Yes3c1,714$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4164…cde6backed Yes4c1,710$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1205…50aabacked Yes3c1,658$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d72…5861backed Yes1c1,627$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4865…aa4ebacked Yes3c1,617$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd438…ce1abacked Yes7c1,608$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c63…0fe0backed Yes2c1,606$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…2014backed Yes6c1,535$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca46…9203backed Yes3c1,492$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba65…3977backed Yes3c1,447$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d72…1a00backed Yes7c1,436$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf98…f2b6backed Yes7c1,403$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f78…2e44backed Yes7c1,342$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6921…a53cbacked Yes4c1,342$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f8…ab26backed Yes3c1,267$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d64…ee82backed Yes3c1,256$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1e…d1acbacked Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bdb…dd36backed Yes3c1,244$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff8…6d63backed Yes6c1,235$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aec…ff50backed Yes3c1,207$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed3…44d6backed Yes4c1,207$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c1,199$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,167$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.392,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb140…8641backed Yes4c1,151$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…a9d9backed Yes3c1,150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaaea…4b01backed Yes5c1,144$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x590f…339dbacked Yes4c1,128$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0206…ef6abacked Yes4c1,123$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fb…c141backed Yes6c1,106$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d73…bfdabacked Yes5c1,099$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bb…e279backed Yes5c1,097$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed49…4619backed Yes4c1,093$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f6…a130backed Yes4c1,086$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c1,080$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…a937backed Yes4c1,077$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes6c1,061$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9813513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b7…ba48backed Yes3c1,056$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bc…bdc0backed Yes4c1,015$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a1…54ecbacked Yes4c988$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…f652backed Yes3c922$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf400…83adbacked Yes3c909$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…aacdbacked Yes4c889$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes4c864.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.79575.3%3 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c860.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.621756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e2…70d3backed Yes3c856$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6001…c446backed Yes4c849$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689b…dc54backed Yes3c800$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5330…99cfbacked Yes3c775$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdb…9018backed Yes4c769$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1609…ed5abacked Yes3c767$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b3…e1f7backed Yes3c731$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…e6cebacked Yes3c725$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe89c…9f56backed Yes4c724$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8a…ca05backed Yes4c700$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c692.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes3c687.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.236731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd73c…6cf1backed Yes4c684$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b4…76f1backed Yes3c650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf98…95b4backed Yes2c637.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7bd…2033backed Yes3c606$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…1473backed Yes4c605$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf638…bfb9backed Yes3c592$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…7615backed Yes4c580$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes8c566.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.414112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x127a…bd94backed Yes3c562$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes4c554.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6529610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7942…1e88backed Yes6c550$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c544.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7111418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes3c541.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d9…cd6fbacked Yes4c529$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132d…ca43backed Yes4c517$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f311backed Yes4c507$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+359.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes4c455.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%11 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a78…896ebacked Yes4c373$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.