TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e2f…55ca

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
177
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT11730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 117 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$86.42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.9
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.38
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.13
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.22
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.95
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.26
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.14
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.42
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.33
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.93
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$300.21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+301.9%+$428.24
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.72
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.17
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.73
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$893.58
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.78
Showing 25 of 117 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$110
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.99
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$147.52
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$600
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$2,228.88
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$229
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$705
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+146.9%+$1,487.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$96.08
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$375.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,978Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,977.63
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$24.81
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$116.08
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,088Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+29.7%+$620.24
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$31.25
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.09
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$1,604.92
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$526.4
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.28
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.07
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$300
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$136.75
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Heat vs. Thunderbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+122.2%+$122.22
All 3 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+346.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+346.4%+$1,039.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$168
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+64.3%+$246.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$21.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.