Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in March 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d88926d45bec2e089ed072b14afbf137cb2085cfc50d598a343b43a2756c26e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,814 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	1c	2,766$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,982$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.9	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,950$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f4b…224cbacked Yes	1c	1,632$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38f3…a103backed Yes	1c	1,555$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	1,321$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.74	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	1,117$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf20…67aebacked Yes	5c	834.1$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.17	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	831.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	484$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	471.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	5c	271.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in March 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event