Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d809b67a9e92f9f00fce87e10dac8d6ce9af5119794fc87ec39a21ce79a7833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $418,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,313 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 4c | 46,360$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.46 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 15c | 28,334$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.55 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…3e22backed Yes | 0c | 25,440$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 15,050$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 35c | 14,347$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 13c | 13,397$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.53 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 24c | 13,162$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143.4 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 28c | 11,319$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,188.36 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 42c | 10,524$4,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,368.02 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 70c | 9,508$6,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.96 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 30c | 7,528$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.52 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 30c | 6,054$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.19 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 54c | 6,036$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.42 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 31c | 5,666$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.72 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 4,600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 50c | 4,430$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.76 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 34c | 4,263$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.77 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…39eebacked Yes | 12c | 4,189$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,059$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 36c | 4,000$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.82 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 16c | 3,950$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 25c | 3,865$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.84 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 31c | 3,684$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.27 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 36c | 3,493$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.09 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 29c | 3,303$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.96 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 31c | 3,194$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.66 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…dc56backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…4064backed No | 60c | 2,850$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.13 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed No | 73c | 2,615$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.02 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 15c | 2,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 28c | 2,582$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 2,427$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.47 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 25c | 2,325$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.1 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,300$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…2fa3backed Yes | 27c | 1,870$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…2b46backed Yes | 29c | 1,801$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 1,739$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.65 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 1,714$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.26 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 29c | 1,708$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.47 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 32c | 1,680$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,600$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.68 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca57…f354backed Yes | 32c | 1,567$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 34c | 1,452$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes | 25c | 1,448$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.14 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,447$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.17 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 67c | 1,383$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.3 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 26c | 1,366$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.3 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,357$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.12 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 50c | 1,344$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.18 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 16c | 1,300$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 1,292$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.25 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…a714backed Yes | 30c | 1,207$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 34c | 1,170$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.03 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 48c | 1,160$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.74 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 20c | 1,122$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 26c | 1,116$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 1,111$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.08 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,100$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 64c | 1,094$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 21c | 1,074$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 24c | 1,048$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 26c | 1,027$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.72 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,024$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 1,018$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.58 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 36c | 999.99$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 32c | 999.97$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed Yes | 2c | 950$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed No | 68c | 933.97$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.77 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 71c | 853$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.15 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…0d3bbacked Yes | 15c | 850$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 64c | 840.16$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.57 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 75c | 831.88$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 61c | 810$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.3 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 803.8$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.7 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 31c | 798.89$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 26c | 776.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…1bd8backed Yes | 23c | 750.71$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 28c | 750$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 31c | 740.95$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…b128backed No | 71c | 739.63$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 26c | 700$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked No | 56c | 680.49$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.45 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 26c | 680.29$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 2c | 670$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Yes | 26c | 650.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc447…54f5backed No | 71c | 649.99$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 28c | 642.53$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Yes | 11c | 642.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 25c | 599.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 28c | 599.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…79dbbacked Yes | 33c | 598.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 30c | 586.67$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe902…eda4backed Yes | 25c | 586.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…461ebacked No | 62c | 586.18$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.84 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +9.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.