TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$418,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,313 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes4c46,360$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.464816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes15c28,334$4,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,116.5566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe337…3e22backed Yes0c25,440$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c15,050$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.325617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes35c14,347$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes13c13,397$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.532259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes24c13,162$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,143.41,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes28c11,319$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.3631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes42c10,524$4,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,368.0221213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No70c9,508$6,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,825.9656329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes30c7,528$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.5257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes30c6,054$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.1931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No54c6,036$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.4246137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes31c5,666$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.722321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c4,600$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.71,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes50c4,430$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.768425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes34c4,263$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.7713430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Yes12c4,189$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes4c4,059$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6912424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes36c4,000$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.8214332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes16c3,950$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes25c3,865$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8424815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes31c3,684$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.2717723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes36c3,493$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.0953222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes29c3,303$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.9615128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes31c3,194$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.6617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5d…dc56backed No68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…4064backed No60c2,850$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.132924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed No73c2,615$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.028622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes15c2,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…d145backed Yes28c2,582$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.254427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c2,427$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.4776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes25c2,325$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.117728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes27c2,300$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9913116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3715413%20 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4180…2fa3backed Yes27c1,870$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+57.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…2b46backed Yes29c1,801$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c1,739$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.6554274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c1,714$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.269058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes29c1,708$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4750828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes32c1,680$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.82250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes2c1,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3212416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes23c1,600$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6850913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca57…f354backed Yes32c1,567$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.371450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes34c1,452$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes25c1,448$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.143537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes33c1,447$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No67c1,383$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes26c1,366$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes24c1,357$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1211838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No50c1,344$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes16c1,300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8416110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c1,292$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.252,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b86…a714backed Yes30c1,207$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.811520%3 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes34c1,170$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.032097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes48c1,160$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.7414137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes20c1,122$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0922023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes26c1,116$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5987917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No67c1,111$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0819550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes32c1,100$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.514025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…1a31backed No64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.752373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes21c1,074$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes24c1,048$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes26c1,027$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7248819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes23c1,024$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6210322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c1,018$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5831565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes36c999.99$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3628633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes32c999.97$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9918123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a0…a974backed Yes2c950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+35.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No68c933.97$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.776634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed No71c853$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1514233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd199…0d3bbacked Yes15c850$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No64c840.16$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5728025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No75c831.88$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.986167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No61c810$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.316056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c803.8$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.726461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes31c798.89$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.154438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes26c776.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4449919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb857…1bd8backed Yes23c750.71$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.933525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes28c750$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.523819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes31c740.95$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2306322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…b128backed No71c739.63$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.594560%27 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes26c700$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1796224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked No56c680.49$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.451288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes26c680.29$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.311,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes2c670$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0525023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a8…2282backed Yes26c650.97$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.442821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc447…54f5backed No71c649.99$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes28c642.53$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18042312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Yes11c642.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.752729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes25c599.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes28c599.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.134215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Yes33c598.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes30c586.67$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17618321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe902…eda4backed Yes25c586.27$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9f…461ebacked No62c586.18$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.849554.7%52 W · 43 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+31%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.