TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c29…8c43

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
541
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tennis, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 55 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT46521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 465 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$133.85
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+5,928%+$1,482
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+300%+$390
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+442.8%+$664.22
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.89
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+300.6%+$601.2
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+301%+$601.94
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 465 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT6923.2%16 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinskibacked Jan Choinski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyukbacked Nadia Podoroska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samsonbacked Laura Samson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutsonbacked Gabriela Knutson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Alvesbacked Felipe Meligeni Alves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertolabacked Remy Bertola · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+147.1%+$220.71
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connellbacked Joel Schwaerzler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodeschbacked Florent Bax · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barriosbacked Marco Cecchinato · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.35
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Juan Manuel Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+279.3%+$81
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Silvabacked Joao Lucas Da Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejobacked Adolfo Vallejo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$388.24
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigurbacked Petra Marcinko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinskibacked Jan Choinski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$135.19
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paulbacked Francisco Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+710.8%+$284.3
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoebacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Ealabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Taggerbacked Lilli Tagger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birrellbacked Indianna Spink · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appletonbacked Emily Appleton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikatabacked Rinky Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$675
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.