Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3702a1719f0dbd4b588a2f779c79ed67a5defffdd0fca379f5b5a3eadf3565f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaerof Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Joao Lucas Da Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 24c | 12,398$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 78c | 9,956$7,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.07 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 11c | 4,491$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.86 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 5c | 3,661$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 8c | 1,809$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 10c | 1,590$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 8c | 1,226$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 8c | 1,070$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 9c | 845.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 10c | 799.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 10c | 733.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 8c | 703.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 13c | 428.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 75c | 404.42$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 17c | 394$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 193 | 49.7%96 W · 97 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 78c | 262.56$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 7c | 211.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 9c | 203.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 28.4%78 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -16.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 12c | 93.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 23c | 88.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…2dbebacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 73c | 73.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Joao Lucas Da Silva | 28c | 71.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Joao Lucas Da Silva | 17c | 71.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 80c | 50.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 313 | 66.8%209 W · 104 L | +27.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.