Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad393d4a4adc2ef0d8d45b9c27d8d7c9743dd7231767631b20a595e6b6db79d5

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $370,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,076 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	47,612$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.61	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	27,624$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.47	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	4c	18,582$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.67	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	15,346$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.72	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	9,179$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	8,320$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.02	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	8,294$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.21	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	7,097$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.58	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	5,542$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.34	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	5,060$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.95	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	4,300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	4,000$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	3,777$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.92	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	2c	3,677$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.95	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,620$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.92	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	3,141$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.17	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	3,135$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.64	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,678$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.28	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	4c	2,551$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	2,532$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.79	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	1c	2,513$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	5c	2,399$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	4c	2,256$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.68	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,122$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	2,108$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.48	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	2,010$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.83	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,973$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	1,933$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	2c	1,913$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	5c	1,792$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.34	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,768$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	1c	1,765$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	1,750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,701$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.93	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,603$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,594$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	1,526$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	1,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	1,490$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	1,487$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…d57ebacked Yes	1c	1,284$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes	3c	1,271$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	71	39.4%28 W · 43 L	+9.0wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	3c	1,270$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	5c	1,258$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	1c	1,240$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	1c	1,214$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	5c	1,195$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	2c	1,134$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes	2c	1,107$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.31	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	2c	1,107$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5280…86f9backed Yes	3c	1,067$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,047$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	999.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	989.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes	11c	933.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	3c	925.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.55	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c2…f725backed Yes	3c	925$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	909.11$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	900$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	3c	879.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	3c	871.38$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	858.54$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	846.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	4c	818.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	813.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	5c	811.72$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.23	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	799.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	785$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	7c	774.26$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.84	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	5c	769.85$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.57	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	2c	766.17$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	756.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes	2c	700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+6.1wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+152.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.84	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	688.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	646$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	8c	642.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.63	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	4c	625.37$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	600.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	7c	592.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	589.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	3c	523$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	2c	499.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	3c	480$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	10c	452.27$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb6…6373backed Yes	3c	432.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	21cpaid	+120.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes	7c	422.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes	4c	404.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	5c	373.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	12c	370$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	7c	363.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	6c	357.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	4c	342.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	6c	332$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	12c	317.68$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	8c	300.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event