Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c205780b5386974712c4ba51934dac49f83879ac6155e792a82ef7b704b350

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $543,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $331,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,867 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	103,153$2,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,081.88	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece1…da74backed Yes	0c	31,320$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	11c	24,339$2,760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,760.15	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	2c	10,311$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.87	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	9c	10,261$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.94	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	6,700$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.9	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	6,674$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.75	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	16c	5,594$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.85	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	9c	5,298$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.85	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	4,968$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.54	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	8c	4,817$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.56	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	11c	4,781$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.6	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	11c	4,703$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.67	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,672$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.54	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ae…b85ebacked Yes	1c	4,400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	4,312$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.12	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	11c	4,128$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.21	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	4,000$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	10c	3,734$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.95	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	13c	3,625$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.48	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,450$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	3,404$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.41	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x657b…2094backed Yes	21c	3,312$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	6c	3,246$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.79	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	13c	3,059$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.22	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	6c	3,055$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.18	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	3,015$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.21	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	10c	3,000$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.34	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	3,000$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	80c	2,925$2,338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.94	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	2,811$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.49	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed Yes	23c	2,668$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,664$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.64	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	2,626$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	6c	2,590$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.51	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	5c	2,500$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.86	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	12c	2,495$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.68	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No	78c	2,462$1,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.97	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	14c	2,445$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.61	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	2,415$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25de…a9dcbacked Yes	1c	2,238$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	14c	2,223$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.14	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	2,200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	14c	2,199$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.7	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	13c	2,131$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.44	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	15c	2,046$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.65	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	13c	1,916$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	18c	1,874$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.27	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	12c	1,837$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.44	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	21c	1,750$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.82	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	13c	1,715$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.81	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	7c	1,602$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.42	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,588$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	20c	1,508$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.21	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	17c	1,506$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.99	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	16c	1,503$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.49	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	1,462$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.22	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,411$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	10c	1,400$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	9c	1,383$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.31	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	10c	1,288$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	11c	1,263$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.38	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	1,230$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.46	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	15c	1,200$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.35	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	17c	1,199$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.13	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes	1c	1,183$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	21c	1,169$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.24	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	5c	1,155$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.34	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,100$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.13	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	15c	1,071$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.37	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb419…cb01backed Yes	15c	1,067$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.18	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	19c	1,056$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	17c	1,051$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.37	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	20c	1,029$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.25	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	4c	999.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	950.93$731 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.19	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	13c	942.57$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	941.79$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.98	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	7c	922.08$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes	5c	920.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	901.02$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.76	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	14c	828.17$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.12	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	9c	762.69$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.08	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	6c	760.29$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	18c	755.72$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.74	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	752.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.82	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	4c	724.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	15c	706.29$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.3	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	8c	702.74$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	5c	686.74$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.11	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	668$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.52	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	9c	667.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.61	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6360…1699backed Yes	4c	658.46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	12c	656.74$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.82	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	9c	652.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes	14c	637.48$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+6.1wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+152.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes	16c	633.11$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.08	71	39.4%28 W · 43 L	+9.0wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event