Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee82b2760bb5e31400c80f39f12887f7f91c4fb9b0e17d55da0f66cfdb664c7

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,374 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	10,380$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	0c	5,822$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	2,508$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.27	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,189$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,052$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.86	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,359$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	1,100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	1c	935.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	2c	904.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	2c	737.54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	2c	700$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	514.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	2c	503.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event