Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3456289957ea9a6490a496d7c96dda69a4878a5b21f9814cc7aefcd4f4fbeec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 350 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 47c | 19,368$9,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,264.82 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 3c | 16,599$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.01 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 25c | 9,813$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,399.94 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 0c | 8,394$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 70c | 6,621$4,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.84 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 15c | 5,986$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.07 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 5,976$3,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.19 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 47c | 5,350$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.68 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.07 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 43c | 4,224$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.22 | 136 | 16.2%22 W · 114 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 13c | 4,050$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,538.77 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 31c | 3,324$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.52 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked No | 29c | 3,202$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.29 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 78c | 3,087$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.32 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 35c | 2,690$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 3c | 2,400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,346$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.6 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 55c | 2,156$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.38 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 14c | 2,072$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.51 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,922$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.19 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 80c | 1,900$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.74 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,896$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.06 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed Yes | 71c | 1,842$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.56 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 42c | 1,759$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.22 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 1,741$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.78 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 22c | 1,706$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.8 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,700$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.02 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 33c | 1,619$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.46 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…e89ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,559$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.16 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 30c | 1,480$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.4 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed No | 30c | 1,408$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,359$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.24 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…3493backed No | 2c | 1,237$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 42c | 1,214$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.02 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 25c | 1,201$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.18 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,163$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.05 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 1,120$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.88 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.02 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 1,088$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.56 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 70c | 1,043$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…d480backed Yes | 23c | 1,035$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 26c | 1,018$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.82 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 176 | 12.5%22 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 26c | 992.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.67 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 31c | 988.05$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 11c | 957.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.58 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 28c | 945.52$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.42 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 75c | 934.48$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.89 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 925.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.48 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 12c | 917.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.79 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 879.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 62c | 873.97$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 12c | 824.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.78 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 78c | 819.62$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 43c | 817.16$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.75 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 20c | 806.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.34 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 64c | 797.87$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.21 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 67c | 788.68$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.81 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…d830backed Yes | 16c | 777.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.16 | 160 | 17.5%28 W · 132 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 73c | 768.94$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.73 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 756.31$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.8 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 16c | 748.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.81 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 62c | 730.31$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.31 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed No | 18c | 700$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 43c | 699.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.13 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 40c | 693.44$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 49c | 688.87$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.84 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 15c | 683.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 683.5$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.82 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 21c | 670.7$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.16 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 667.51$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 36c | 645.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.67 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Yes | 43c | 631.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 23c | 631.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 14c | 627.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.3 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 67c | 623.42$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.05 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 610.1$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.1 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 607$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.57 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…cb01backed Yes | 29c | 606.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e2…4ffcbacked No | 4c | 594.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 22c | 590.79$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 5c | 576.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.05 | 277 | 7.9%22 W · 255 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 38c | 563.02$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.07 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…e0d2backed Yes | 21c | 542.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 39c | 523.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 29c | 522.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.7 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 13c | 512.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.42 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 149 | 12.8%19 W · 130 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 500$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.97 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 47c | 500$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…542cbacked No | 18c | 490$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 39c | 489.4$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 11c | 488.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 26c | 482.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.99 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 480.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 480$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…2b9ebacked Yes | 21c | 475.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed Yes | 21c | 467.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.3 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes | 15c | 463.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 14c | 461.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.19 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.