Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a84ee48d87df3f0229c65ef6c8a2a7657eb4f8c83d686089ddc3bcb04fe818d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $166,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	23,170$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.48	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	2c	10,951$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.41	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	7,983$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.32	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,262$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	1c	5,047$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	4,401$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.45	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	3,918$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.67	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	4c	3,785$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.79	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,768$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	2,519$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	2,165$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	1c	2,093$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	1c	2,022$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,957$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.93	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,721$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	1c	1,720$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c8e…f5e6backed Yes	1c	1,613$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	2c	1,590$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	2c	1,520$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	1c	1,428$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	10c	991.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.18	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	974.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes	12c	896.95$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.85	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	745$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	545.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	8c	484.37$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	13c	431.62$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	301.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	12c	295.36$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	254.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7621…11aabacked Yes	17c	252.06$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.96	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	13c	241.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.43	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	239.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	11c	237.85$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	10c	195$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	14c	180$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	14c	160.3$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4965…5bc0backed Yes	15c	128.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.64	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1239…f34cbacked Yes	16c	124.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-64%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	15c	122.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes	17c	115.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	16c	106.05$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	105.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…7fb5backed Yes	11c	102.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	9.6%5 W · 47 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes	16c	65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event