Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67101478b925edb7868ff2f0ff6c8af70cc0541f057fdd6e92748b72c89da13

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $260,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,791 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	31,305$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.61	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	23,463$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	17,699$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.43	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	15,164$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	8,220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	6,695$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	3c	6,352$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.86	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,164$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,094$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.19	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	4,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	3,938$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.69	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,215$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,119$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	2,826$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,311$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,277$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes	1c	2,252$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	2,240$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,219$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	8c	2,143$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	1c	2,093$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	4c	1,365$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.64	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5099…9554backed Yes	1c	1,304$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes	1c	1,246$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	1c	1,157$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	1c	1,137$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	6c	1,016$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.7	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	4c	1,003$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	902.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	900.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	899.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes	1c	833.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	71	39.4%28 W · 43 L	+9.0wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	783.7$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	3c	705.01$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	9c	639.63$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	4c	589.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	584.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	5c	533.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859b…d03abacked Yes	9c	417.45$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.37	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	6c	399.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	6c	397.96$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.98	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	3c	378.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	371.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	3c	369.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	4c	332$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	6c	268.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	5c	254.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event