Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa12fb83a51c026e11475e0189e86b8ec31b2979e0dbc537b1b718eef8bbe04c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $249,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $131,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	50,010$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	21,308$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.05	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	19,159$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	15,299$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	6,565$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.08	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,156$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	5,043$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,948$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	2,970$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	4c	2,738$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.76	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	2,655$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.97	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	2,304$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	2,265$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	2,200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.65	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	1,129$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	2c	1,084$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	2c	970$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	4c	827.62$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	4c	802.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	2c	731.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	3c	708.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	3c	646.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	602.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	599.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	4c	570$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	4c	559.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	2c	544.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	4c	490.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	3c	450$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	419$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	6c	241.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event