Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee868d4ad6365f2e906a2ed505a2b4dfc904f78746c33823ebbbe2135f5e7acf

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,015 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	6,016$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	4,657$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.69	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,390$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	4,080$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,885$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	1c	3,614$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.41	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	4c	3,227$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.21	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	1,850$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	1,823$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	10c	597.55$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.43	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	15c	431.73$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.73	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	8c	312.24$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	17c	300$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	12c	299.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	7c	236.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	17c	195.26$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	7c	160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	17c	123.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	16c	99.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c83…28d9backed Yes	16c	73.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	67.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event