TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65ab…273d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
275
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 51 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT20432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 204 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.61
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$28.38
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$49.84
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,176Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$324.14
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+552.5%+$376.69
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,988Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,987.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$103.39
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+95.4%+$146.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.27
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$70.8
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$717.48
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.98
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,044.63
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$20.24
Showing 25 of 204 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$34.5
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$13.44
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.88
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.63
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.13
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
France to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$11.75
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
France leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.4
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.75
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$79.5
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.31
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$7.75
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$10.81
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$12.5
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.71
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.75
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.58
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+217.5%+$68.5
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$22.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% or more in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Bruinsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.