Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34a4336b97596bb89c07519cd8875054a35feedcadc3569a97147e7ec0ac0a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 12,110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 57c | 4,614$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.46 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 56c | 3,557$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 3,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 50c | 3,005$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.39 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 5c | 2,854$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 45c | 2,462$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.28 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 1c | 2,442$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 44c | 2,283$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.33 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…30b6backed Yes | 40c | 2,161$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 61c | 1,825$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 25c | 1,803$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.37 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 51c | 1,782$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.97 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 48c | 1,771$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.11 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 55c | 1,720$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,646$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…b898backed Yes | 51c | 1,634$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 46c | 1,523$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.69 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 63c | 1,275$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.64 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 1,213$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.32 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,201$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.53 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 46c | 1,086$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.09 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 50c | 1,046$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.22 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 54c | 1,038$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.62 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 46c | 941.24$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.48 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 49c | 910.39$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.89 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 32c | 899.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 58c | 862.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 26c | 799.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 17c | 790.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 33c | 751.06$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 720.56$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.72 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 38c | 708.89$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.68 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 701.11$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.1 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 13c | 700.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 49c | 664.24$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.95 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 35c | 656.66$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.23 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 54c | 638.56$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.85 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 11c | 600$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 25c | 576.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 28c | 571.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 56c | 544.01$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 58c | 536.54$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.37 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 70c | 499.12$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 496.93$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.17 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 489.87$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.92 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 66c | 457.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 52c | 423.74$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 47c | 401.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 48c | 399.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…a6b5backed Yes | 63c | 397.86$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 53c | 393.92$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked No | 51c | 392.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 47c | 383.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 54c | 363.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 27c | 346.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…7525backed Yes | 52c | 345.12$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 28c | 344.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 336.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 44c | 327.14$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 4c | 303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 301$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 284.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 36c | 275.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 62c | 264.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 36c | 250$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 242.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 237.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 66c | 233.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 225.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 223.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…c604backed Yes | 55c | 220.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed No | 55c | 212.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 63c | 202.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 71c | 192.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 48c | 192.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 43c | 186.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 185.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 37c | 180.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 172.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 168.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 61c | 167.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 166.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 164.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 160.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 46c | 159$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…eacfbacked Yes | 32c | 156.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 153.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 35c | 142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 22c | 138.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…0d3dbacked Yes | 70c | 137.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.