Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3600bebf801ed485866fda43887be4573d0eb30a252b731d575b81adb70b1271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,600$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 6,614$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,380$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.83 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 21c | 3,337$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.61 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,265$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 1c | 2,980$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,985$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 2c | 1,640$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,613$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,421$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 5c | 1,380$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,372$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 1,283$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 1,196$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,074$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 13c | 1,005$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 3c | 950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…3f77backed Yes | 13c | 933.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 736.66$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 13c | 717.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 3c | 685.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 570$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 13c | 520.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 501.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 14c | 462.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 461.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 13c | 453.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…97f8backed Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 13c | 399.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 8c | 399.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 362.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 145 | 13.8%20 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 286.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 14c | 285.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 78c | 271.27$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…49b6backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4474…876ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 13c | 182.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 169.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…0e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 160.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…473abacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 118.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 11c | 110.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 155 | 19.4%30 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…e74cbacked Yes | 22c | 109.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 18c | 79.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…021ebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…9b43backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 79c | 17.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.