Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8887e7bda8f0bb360d3cb5525627e7c6b221e802817da98941ce422e1dc9c190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 3c | 13,813$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.51 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 33c | 6,040$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.29 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 44c | 5,679$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,166.65 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 14c | 4,071$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.06 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 44c | 3,987$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.89 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 71c | 3,357$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.88 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 55c | 3,000$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.91 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 2,848$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.83 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647a…8872backed Yes | 64c | 2,373$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 48c | 2,296$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.88 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 59c | 2,286$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.68 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 55c | 2,242$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.11 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 1,815$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.62 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 37c | 1,776$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.35 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…b898backed Yes | 25c | 1,753$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 32c | 1,734$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.75 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,538$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.96 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1b7fbacked No | 71c | 1,512$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…30b6backed Yes | 66c | 1,491$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 26c | 1,354$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.47 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 1,353$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.42 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 60c | 1,318$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.64 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 45c | 1,300$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.44 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…34ffbacked Yes | 61c | 1,248$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 66c | 1,246$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.53 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 1,234$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.59 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,233$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.59 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…e4bdbacked No | 65c | 1,210$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 19c | 1,202$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.79 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 22c | 1,200$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 57c | 1,187$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.34 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 25c | 1,072$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.55 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,041$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 36c | 1,023$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.19 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 34c | 1,021$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.31 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…dc20backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 53c | 970$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.26 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 59c | 956.48$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.5 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 48c | 923.04$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.34 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 47c | 908.24$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.17 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 31c | 898.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.13 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 32c | 887.11$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.23 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 39c | 798.61$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.19 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 14c | 714.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 43c | 709.53$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.76 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 66c | 703.34$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.74 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked No | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 45c | 665.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.32 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 47c | 663.93$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 26c | 660.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.12 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 38c | 603.35$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 29c | 580.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 548.35$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 28c | 543.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 56c | 525.12$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 29c | 520.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 66c | 513.24$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 17c | 500$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.6 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 45c | 500$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 42c | 471.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 78c | 445.81$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 48c | 445.81$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 23c | 444.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.45 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 444.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 16c | 440.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 434.04$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.81 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…a6b5backed Yes | 19c | 423.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 23c | 414.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.15 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 41c | 405.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.34 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed No | 37c | 395.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 19c | 386.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 64c | 381.78$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.34 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 41c | 375.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.49 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 73c | 357.35$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.21 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…7525backed Yes | 27c | 356.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 48c | 356.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 31c | 334.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.1 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 59c | 328.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 55c | 327.38$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…07ffbacked Yes | 30c | 325.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 51c | 315.77$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.88 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 54c | 313.24$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…0dffbacked Yes | 38c | 305.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 34c | 301$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 48c | 300.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 24c | 289.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 34c | 278.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.03 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 271.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked Yes | 51c | 269.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.27 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 32c | 266.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…0d3dbacked Yes | 27c | 264.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…091bbacked Yes | 76c | 264.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 256$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.46 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 34c | 253.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec08…7083backed No | 69c | 252.07$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eff…fb57backed Yes | 21c | 243.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 37cpaid | +179%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…9035backed Yes | 63c | 240.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 40c | 240.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 29c | 235.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.