TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4355…c5d4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
161
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NFL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.91
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.19
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+329.3%+$318.15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.23
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.71
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.01
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$52.49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$122
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.46
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+164%+$164.01
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,057Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,056.66
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$1,624.57
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$34.83
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,005
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Spread: Thunder (-24.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.24
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Spread: Knicks (-21.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.4
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$78.83
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+109.6%+$117.63
Spread: Thunder (-21.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Thunder vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$209
Spread: Knicks (-18.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Knicks (-17.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.92
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$5,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,238
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+300%+$315
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.64
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.9
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)backed Curaçao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$137.46
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Germany (-2.5)backed Curaçao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Spread: Germany (-3.5)backed Curaçao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$170.27
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13,294Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$11,927.27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,010
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,613Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$2,297.53
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,336Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+148.5%+$3,469.68
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+288%+$3,170.72
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$139.46
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,277Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$968.27
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$59.54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,101
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$55.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$92.89
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,001Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$6,525.98
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,030Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$990.44
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuelabacked Venezuela · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+205%+$881.62
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuelabacked Italy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.71
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$395.31
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked Dominican Rep. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,350
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuelabacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.95
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.55
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Ricobacked Puerto Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.45
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21.91
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+38.9%+$38.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,003Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+39.7%+$398.67
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+25%+$25
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$211
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+97.1%+$1,196.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.7%+$45.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lille OSC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+33.5%+$66.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+27.7%+$55.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$217.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.