Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c60bf92ee4d2183c90cb3fe0b8ed1119fe41e71c8ede25d016b155d02d20e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,982 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 38c | 12,855$4,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,822.79 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 55c | 4,552$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 64c | 3,919$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 21c | 3,220$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.32 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 15c | 3,136$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.16 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 50c | 2,861$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 35c | 2,528$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.22 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 48c | 2,341$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.76 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 48c | 2,000$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,755$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 21c | 1,600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 68c | 1,520$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 73c | 1,375$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 61c | 1,335$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.9 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 13c | 1,318$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.8 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…dc68backed Yes | 74c | 1,243$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 31c | 1,201$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.17 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed Yes | 51c | 1,148$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…e9a7backed No | 34c | 1,117$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 28c | 1,074$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.18 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 67c | 1,037$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed Yes | 76c | 1,006$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 63c | 901.87$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 49c | 899.57$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 850.17$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 53c | 812.23$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 59c | 759.06$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked Yes | 54c | 743$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 50c | 723.35$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…e037backed Yes | 57c | 703.44$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…440abacked Yes | 57c | 702.32$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 45c | 699.97$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…1b6dbacked Yes | 57c | 670.8$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 658.57$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 35c | 630.01$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 77c | 627.47$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 60c | 596.03$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 41c | 571.52$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.73 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 59c | 563.05$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 79c | 548.91$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 56c | 495.81$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 494.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 22c | 481.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.53 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 69c | 478$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…edcdbacked Yes | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…2726backed Yes | 78c | 451.44$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 16c | 444$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 52c | 430$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 28c | 427.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 31c | 422.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…f9e8backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 50c | 399$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 53c | 389.83$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…f044backed No | 19c | 364.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 40c | 349.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…7d91backed Yes | 68c | 344.84$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 30c | 332.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked No | 31c | 322.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 51c | 299.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 47c | 299.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 297.32$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed Yes | 62c | 276.81$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…176cbacked No | 5c | 261.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 52c | 249.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…3a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 226.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed No | 45c | 222.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 52c | 219$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 213.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 27c | 208.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed No | 50c | 200.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 54c | 186.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 184.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5841…cd1dbacked Yes | 57c | 181.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…acf2backed Yes | 55c | 180.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked No | 24c | 176.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…8b69backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…34d8backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed No | 43c | 164.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 159.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 68c | 156.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 58c | 151$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 63c | 144.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 139.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…a400backed Yes | 68c | 137.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…78afbacked Yes | 73c | 137.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 57c | 136.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 70c | 129.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…b40dbacked Yes | 53c | 128.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030c…9038backed Yes | 68c | 127.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 53c | 122.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…6e60backed Yes | 69c | 122.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 54c | 121.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.