TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6b7b…bd5d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 55 out of 100; worst Olympics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT5154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.3
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.09
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.72
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.26
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.99
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.45
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.63
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.27
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.08
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+101.4%+$110.84
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.6
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.44
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$9.98
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+44.5%+$15.45
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+100.9%+$112.5
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.33
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$73.92
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$60
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.49
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+60.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$90.25
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+72.4%+$18.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.