Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30de38dd5d90810cc853122a3c0e0bc91b969625c066101bc0a982ad54647197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 45c | 799.98$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 749.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 55c | 688.05$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 22c | 655.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 7c | 648.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 49c | 593.06$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 39c | 535.3$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 64c | 528.09$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.91 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 19c | 517.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 63c | 501.17$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 10c | 476.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 72c | 460.8$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 8c | 369.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 53c | 244.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 21c | 235.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 12c | 229.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 50c | 220.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 48c | 204$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 57c | 176.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed Yes | 78c | 144.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 137.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 55c | 128.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 55c | 126.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 46c | 99.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…4e57backed Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 92.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 46c | 88.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 29c | 81.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 79.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 13c | 77.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…9f6dbacked No | 32c | 72.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 24c | 70.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f4acbacked No | 51c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 57.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 24c | 54.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…b64dbacked No | 51c | 52.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 24c | 46.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 78c | 46.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 44.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…af83backed Yes | 77c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…2005backed No | 42c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 34.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 40c | 29.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…518abacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.