TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbb96…9545

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT5719.3%11 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.2
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$309.49
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.43
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$183
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$26.02
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.74
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.89
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$417.36
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.04
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$185.75
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,435Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$380.59
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$67.54
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.44
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$857.4
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.29
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.21
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.68
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.42
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.83
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+167.9%+$153.58
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$21.5
Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.66
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+88.5%+$83.8
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.19
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.34
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.28
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$33.12
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+79.5%+$38.54
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.84
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-60%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+77.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$716.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$977Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+113%+$1,104.06
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Giants vs. Saintsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$124
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+115.5%+$17.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$24.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$218
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$134.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.