Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a5288cfb90005abfbf15b5c5fd963a891a1f41373c9f52797e10a6274de37f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,507,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,507,845 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,823 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 76c | 92,553$70,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,609.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 55c | 91,837$50,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,584.6 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…cf10backed No | 44c | 83,800$37,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,620.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 44c | 66,874$29,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,178.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 27c | 62,878$16,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,068.56 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 50c | 57,156$28,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,788.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 46c | 49,003$22,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,580.78 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked No | 30c | 48,562$14,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,100.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a397backed No | 12c | 44,478$5,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,357.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +232.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 17c | 38,132$6,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,547 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 31c | 37,955$11,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,260.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 31c | 34,099$10,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,565.4 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 41c | 33,153$13,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,427.61 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 18c | 31,596$5,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,005.53 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 37c | 29,606$11,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,541.61 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 6c | 29,566$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,929.4 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 17c | 29,300$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,268.29 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…922bbacked Yes | 56c | 28,200$15,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,679.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…add2backed Yes | 56c | 28,000$15,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,568 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…84aabacked Yes | 56c | 27,600$15,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,373.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…c110backed No | 29c | 26,850$7,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,117.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked No | 44c | 25,160$11,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,106.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…daccbacked Yes | 43c | 24,812$10,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,668.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 27c | 24,336$6,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,670.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed No | 50c | 23,845$11,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,035.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 15c | 23,836$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,340.23 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 40c | 23,487$9,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,034.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…0e31backed No | 33c | 20,675$6,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,949.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 53c | 20,371$10,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,483.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 51c | 20,175$10,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,383.29 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 69c | 19,077$13,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,854.26 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 6c | 17,030$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,951.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 79c | 16,914$13,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,405.09 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 35c | 16,648$5,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,748.89 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 15,024$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.46 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…c969backed No | 9c | 15,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,649.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 47c | 15,000$7,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,085.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 10c | 14,647$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.35 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 29c | 14,254$4,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,131.83 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 61c | 14,000$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,549.95 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 17c | 13,500$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,205 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 30c | 13,314$4,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,273.23 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 25c | 12,909$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,675.16 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 44c | 12,707$5,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,140.08 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf476…8cefbacked Yes | 56c | 12,000$6,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,719.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…b8f1backed No | 26c | 11,907$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,783.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 39c | 11,772$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,229.46 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…3d02backed Yes | 46c | 11,380$5,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,230.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 38c | 11,357$4,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,087.28 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 41c | 11,014$4,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,444.83 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 46c | 10,771$4,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,814.34 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 17c | 10,653$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,851.93 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 77c | 9,756$7,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,496.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5df2backed No | 49c | 9,106$4,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,685.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 44c | 9,029$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…adafbacked No | 22c | 8,980$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +360.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 48c | 8,721$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.34 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…7214backed No | 26c | 8,478$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,292.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked No | 43c | 8,150$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 18c | 8,138$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,693.18 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…a1debacked No | 40c | 8,076$3,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…30d9backed Yes | 49c | 8,068$3,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 35c | 8,046$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,199.27 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 51c | 8,000$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,952.43 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d20…6073backed No | 33c | 8,000$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,328 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes | 75c | 7,864$5,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,926.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes | 72c | 7,616$5,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,468.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 38c | 7,583$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,698.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…948bbacked Yes | 59c | 7,557$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,450.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…c515backed No | 19c | 7,524$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,069.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…727abacked No | 15c | 7,300$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,231.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 51c | 7,258$3,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.71 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 33c | 7,243$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820.03 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 28c | 7,221$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 31c | 7,195$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,959.69 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e87…b591backed Yes | 71c | 7,100$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 15c | 6,874$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,867.42 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 6,858$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,808.3 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…953fbacked Yes | 71c | 6,650$4,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…634ebacked Yes | 71c | 6,600$4,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 52c | 6,575$3,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,144.52 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 66c | 6,547$4,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,337.19 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…a783backed Yes | 71c | 6,500$4,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,628 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 26c | 6,500$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 16c | 6,495$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.65 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…e888backed Yes | 48c | 6,481$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…079fbacked No | 44c | 6,345$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,545.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 70c | 6,340$4,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,424.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…b53abacked No | 41c | 6,339$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,768.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…ee83backed Yes | 64c | 6,263$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e9…da40backed No | 40c | 6,247$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…a785backed Yes | 65c | 6,221$4,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 47c | 5,960$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54de…6ddbbacked No | 52c | 5,802$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 28c | 5,794$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,193.49 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 46c | 5,794$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.37 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 32c | 5,594$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,812.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 20c | 5,450$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…832dbacked No | 68c | 5,389$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 44c | 5,183$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.