Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad6e1b45476e08812fa8779a13ef0fbacb050231a582feb78cb4b925ad6126f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $501,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,846 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 0c | 11,364$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 4c | 10,929$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526a…537bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,635$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…4fd7backed Yes | 1c | 10,635$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab1…ed84backed Yes | 1c | 10,590$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba9…21d0backed Yes | 1c | 10,590$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…7366backed Yes | 1c | 10,590$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…0f0bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,590$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…7157backed Yes | 2c | 10,400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…12ddbacked Yes | 2c | 5,804$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 1c | 5,287$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed Yes | 0c | 4,251$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…1444backed Yes | 4c | 2,541$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 1c | 2,538$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,405$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…f5cfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,336$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,285$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…a833backed Yes | 4c | 2,100$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,998$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 1,707$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,652$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…dbe1backed Yes | 6c | 1,607$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,560$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…d883backed Yes | 18c | 1,375$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7b…2a7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…0267backed Yes | 4c | 1,038$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…7947backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…6a7dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…24a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…cf32backed Yes | 5c | 978.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 924.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 5c | 909.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 826.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…c840backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e28…eebbbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 75c | 678.83$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…4637backed Yes | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 521.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…7e3fbacked Yes | 5c | 353.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bca4backed Yes | 23c | 342.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…59dbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.