Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b8523c795e0ba47ce24a265777fca51d636742005b758dce260364d78e1e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,855,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,855,999 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 9c | 80,502$7,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,535.98 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b87…0432backed No | 11c | 64,782$6,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,996.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 10c | 45,900$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.28 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…a3c3backed No | 5c | 45,500$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 10c | 41,388$4,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,254.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 15c | 35,925$5,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,462.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 11c | 34,116$3,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,712.86 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked No | 5c | 29,170$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 14c | 26,168$3,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.62 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed No | 8c | 25,382$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…3499backed No | 3c | 21,974$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 14c | 21,533$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.59 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…7035backed No | 4c | 20,000$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 6c | 19,061$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed No | 7c | 18,163$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +489.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 9c | 16,845$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.53 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 15,332$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.9 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 5c | 15,282$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 14,737$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 14c | 13,915$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 3c | 13,455$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.39 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 13,320$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed No | 13c | 12,983$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.66 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +295.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5df2backed No | 21c | 12,420$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 5c | 12,030$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.41 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…91edbacked No | 13c | 11,610$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked No | 3c | 11,116$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed No | 3c | 10,473$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 0c | 10,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 10c | 9,185$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.74 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked No | 4c | 9,182$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +599.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 4c | 8,821$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 16c | 8,660$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.14 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…d2f5backed No | 15c | 8,169$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…81debacked No | 4c | 8,116$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 12c | 8,063$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.96 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 15c | 7,857$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 8c | 7,534$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.91 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 5c | 7,331$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 20c | 7,315$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.02 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 16c | 7,000$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.49 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 6,786$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 6,612$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.53 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9553backed Yes | 77c | 6,538$5,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 4c | 6,233$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.26 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 79c | 6,140$4,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.37 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 1c | 6,108$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 3c | 6,103$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…727abacked No | 12c | 6,100$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 5c | 6,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 10c | 5,742$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.24 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 7c | 5,610$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b34…2fdcbacked No | 5c | 5,581$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 7c | 5,550$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6b…fee6backed No | 16c | 5,514$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed No | 1c | 5,480$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 16c | 5,016$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…238cbacked No | 10c | 5,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 17c | 5,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…7214backed No | 7c | 5,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…b7a2backed No | 0c | 4,996$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 2c | 4,779$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…0405backed No | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +7.4wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…be55backed No | 6c | 4,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed No | 4c | 4,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c4…9309backed No | 14c | 3,900$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed No | 11c | 3,777$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 3,735$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 3,689$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 3,600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked No | 11c | 3,542$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 3,498$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 14c | 3,480$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…b284backed No | 15c | 3,367$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 5c | 3,333$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 6c | 3,262$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 20c | 3,259$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.35 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 14c | 3,222$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.51 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 3,091$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec43…8a74backed No | 6c | 3,069$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 3,056$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked No | 6c | 3,037$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…db8abacked No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 6c | 3,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…7b0dbacked No | 12c | 2,972$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…1843backed No | 1c | 2,807$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 3c | 2,688$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 1c | 2,685$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 4c | 2,470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 2,318$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.76 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…1d84backed No | 1c | 2,290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…d54fbacked No | 13c | 2,222$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…9737backed No | 12c | 2,203$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed No | 2c | 2,179$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…6b21backed No | 5c | 2,008$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.