Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x170e907f54cd05c3f181067798610feb95f590d5d4be2bdda699c83249e2666e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,512,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,512,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,488 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 59c | 85,198$50,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,064.93 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…f8ddbacked No | 34c | 58,665$20,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,580.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 6c | 55,643$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,484.61 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…8cccbacked Yes | 0c | 52,650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 11c | 48,201$5,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,163.31 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 13c | 46,604$5,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,884.87 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 11c | 43,488$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…731cbacked Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked No | 47c | 36,730$17,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,358.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 9c | 35,420$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.09 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 46c | 29,715$13,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,046.17 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 54c | 29,684$15,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,974.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…716fbacked No | 76c | 28,020$21,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,682.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…a6c5backed No | 52c | 23,721$12,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,465.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 72c | 21,202$15,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,887.23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 8c | 21,185$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.64 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 47c | 20,959$9,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,082.33 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…1280backed Yes | 63c | 18,343$11,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,466.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 55c | 18,013$9,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,836.37 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 40c | 17,398$6,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,473.66 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed Yes | 3c | 16,364$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 56c | 15,085$8,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,596.3 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…b467backed Yes | 55c | 14,820$8,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,128.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 30c | 14,646$4,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,201.85 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 64c | 13,271$8,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,515.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 1c | 13,044$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…48d4backed Yes | 67c | 12,969$8,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,681.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 30c | 12,821$3,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,788.21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed No | 46c | 12,603$5,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,847.87 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 30c | 12,500$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,734.98 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked No | 37c | 11,997$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,545.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…637dbacked Yes | 11c | 11,557$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes | 15c | 11,510$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9553backed Yes | 27c | 11,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 42c | 11,000$4,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,386.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…d0abbacked Yes | 47c | 10,392$4,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,838.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 49c | 10,288$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,288.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 40c | 10,045$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f348backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…d5a1backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 3c | 9,906$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.62 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes | 23c | 9,661$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 36c | 9,659$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,138.89 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb41…9903backed Yes | 53c | 9,172$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,881.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked Yes | 8c | 9,156$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 41c | 9,100$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,358.93 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 17c | 8,737$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Yes | 26c | 8,582$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…61f2backed Yes | 64c | 8,306$5,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,276.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 33c | 8,125$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,443.94 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…8d22backed Yes | 45c | 8,011$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 65c | 8,005$5,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,181.41 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…d9a6backed Yes | 66c | 7,769$5,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,146.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,760$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +599.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 59c | 7,665$4,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,374.99 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…ee83backed Yes | 30c | 7,422$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 32c | 7,414$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,036.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…0fc7backed Yes | 67c | 7,324$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,939.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 38c | 7,298$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,531.16 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 54c | 7,236$3,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.33 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…d883backed Yes | 57c | 7,088$4,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,041.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 45c | 7,075$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.81 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…d07cbacked Yes | 54c | 7,072$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,818.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…0e31backed No | 47c | 7,038$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,735.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…0451backed No | 43c | 6,896$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,939.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…3254backed Yes | 74c | 6,768$4,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,977.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Yes | 60c | 6,693$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,655$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…de76backed Yes | 75c | 6,640$4,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…320dbacked Yes | 25c | 6,583$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 41c | 6,197$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked Yes | 59c | 6,149$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,653.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…3b94backed Yes | 51c | 6,144$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…4637backed Yes | 16c | 5,991$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,753$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 4c | 5,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 9c | 5,311$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.36 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed Yes | 11c | 5,234$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…8366backed Yes | 29c | 5,210$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed Yes | 5c | 5,148$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 4c | 5,132$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…4816backed Yes | 5c | 5,071$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.39 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 64c | 4,981$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.49 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 35c | 4,925$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…7aebbacked Yes | 10c | 4,874$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 29c | 4,700$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,358.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…005fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,638$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 35c | 4,605$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,593$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 10c | 4,549$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…3f35backed Yes | 65c | 4,351$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…9beabacked Yes | 66c | 4,279$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed No | 38c | 4,207$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…2099backed No | 34c | 4,158$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.