Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fcf04fb172851f0d88a867185111b5078981a42321755b83ef5ceec197b2a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $889,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $889,437 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 9c | 57,017$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,079.66 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 3c | 31,453$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.92 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…40acbacked Yes | 0c | 22,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…0a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 21,855$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 17c | 21,369$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,695.7 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed Yes | 4c | 17,415$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…0e31backed No | 74c | 15,312$11,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,930.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…5107backed Yes | 20c | 12,164$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 46c | 11,345$5,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,203.41 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 68c | 10,534$7,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.22 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…ff53backed Yes | 0c | 10,282$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 9c | 9,000$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.42 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 17c | 8,497$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.24 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 12c | 7,435$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.88 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…5e08backed Yes | 20c | 6,905$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…39fcbacked Yes | 20c | 6,780$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80d…2043backed No | 80c | 6,730$5,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7b…a133backed No | 80c | 6,351$5,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…7d8fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,000$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f6…8faabacked No | 80c | 5,889$4,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 9c | 5,741$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb470…9945backed Yes | 40c | 5,700$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…9013backed No | 80c | 5,653$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…6c19backed Yes | 20c | 5,574$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…57b8backed No | 80c | 5,490$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed Yes | 30c | 4,960$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…469abacked No | 80c | 4,846$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 12c | 4,793$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…e71ebacked No | 80c | 4,540$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 9c | 4,528$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.31 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,290$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…750dbacked No | 80c | 4,142$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d359backed No | 80c | 3,988$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1d…ac7dbacked No | 80c | 3,962$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…d70ebacked No | 68c | 3,816$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Yes | 39c | 3,688$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 3,687$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…a3a3backed Yes | 66c | 3,500$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 3,406$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.72 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 9c | 3,400$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.5 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,146$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,103$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…3265backed Yes | 32c | 3,095$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked No | 71c | 2,817$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…24babacked No | 77c | 2,765$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,606$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.08 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 12c | 2,557$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 45c | 2,537$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.76 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,522$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.82 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 74c | 2,410$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.6 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 47c | 2,383$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.35 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Yes | 11c | 2,360$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69be…7c2ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,220$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…9285backed Yes | 9c | 2,178$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f73…2b8ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,110$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed No | 78c | 2,100$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…c58abacked No | 73c | 2,059$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…e888backed Yes | 15c | 2,052$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,001$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.58 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.13 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…a31bbacked No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,969$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 70c | 1,800$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…81debacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 55c | 1,785$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,740$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…fbe1backed No | 80c | 1,733$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,705$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 26c | 1,703$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…2eedbacked Yes | 34c | 1,684$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…727fbacked No | 69c | 1,681$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 8c | 1,622$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…ad59backed Yes | 12c | 1,600$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed Yes | 16c | 1,567$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a1…8f8ebacked No | 80c | 1,533$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…30d9backed Yes | 17c | 1,476$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed Yes | 25c | 1,373$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…4ae5backed Yes | 11c | 1,370$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 58c | 1,309$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.72 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…b8fabacked No | 34c | 1,295$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 70c | 1,220$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 8c | 1,170$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,117$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…47b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 8c | 1,050$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 77c | 1,050$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…aa97backed Yes | 16c | 1,036$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…c14ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,028$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 9c | 1,020$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…51e1backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.