Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bcbcf94ede69ef40b90bea8f219d21c1ee911ee2366016178ae43c6d5f37766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 22,065$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.96 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,584$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…7c1ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,560$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cce…5f44backed Yes | 0c | 10,560$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…9cafbacked Yes | 1c | 7,620$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…da5dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,620$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…2ff8backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…f075backed Yes | 1c | 5,120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…dbe1backed Yes | 3c | 3,241$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…6419backed Yes | 1c | 3,203$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 3,102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,999$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,863$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 1c | 2,649$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,614$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 2,389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,350$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e28…eebbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,948$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,539$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…c840backed Yes | 3c | 1,461$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,414$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…c644backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…787ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…25e3backed Yes | 1c | 955.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…2f15backed Yes | 1c | 887.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 670.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 2c | 460.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3046…b871backed Yes | 5c | 400.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.