Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd136cb87bb217ec23f98999dd226e59f60091adf89e5a5315b8a1556627cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $406,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8904…80a3backed Yes | 5c | 40,390$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 4c | 26,000$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 4c | 25,877$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 16,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 2c | 14,969$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.79 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,346$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,968$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 2c | 4,907$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 5c | 4,369$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,610$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…e53cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,910$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,326$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,893$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,802$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…67d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,616$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…c29bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,478$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,428$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…9205backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…1ddcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,184$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb932…b97ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 980.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes | 3c | 965.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Yes | 11c | 926.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 2c | 925$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…d2b9backed Yes | 3c | 887.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 4c | 760$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 5c | 612.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 4c | 510.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes | 3c | 406$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…640fbacked Yes | 13c | 398.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 382.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 355$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 338.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 166.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…f61bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 96.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.