TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6cc7…fe1c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
196
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT11744.4%52 W · 65 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 117 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+525%+$84
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.34
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.32
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Hornets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.53
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$124
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Magic vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Pistons vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Hornets vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+400%+$79.99
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+522%+$109.1
Pistons vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$98
Clippers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$124
Showing 25 of 117 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$78
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$175
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$147
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.5
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$148
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$120
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+37%+$216.2
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$41.4
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Over $16M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+47.1%+$94.12
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+61.3%+$57
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+81.8%+$45
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+40.2%+$43
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,222.68
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,694Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,694.14
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,381.46
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.98
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.18
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$61
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+25%+$25
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$75
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.39
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$9,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,224.59
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$4,804Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,803.53
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.52
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$74
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.