Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $886,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,038,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $886,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 6c | 140,000$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…ebb5backed No | 3c | 44,221$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 69c | 40,827$28,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,478.83 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 2c | 34,204$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.47 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 7c | 19,621$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 0c | 7,224$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 31c | 6,007$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 39c | 5,884$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…06f9backed No | 3c | 5,770$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 17c | 5,685$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.04 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 74c | 5,660$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.5 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 22c | 4,966$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.65 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…4be6backed No | 2c | 4,844$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 78c | 4,702$3,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.9 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3791…158fbacked No | 52c | 4,237$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,725$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…efe6backed Yes | 79c | 3,655$2,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 6c | 3,631$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 3c | 3,465$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 3c | 3,433$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 29c | 3,272$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 3c | 3,104$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…78ecbacked No | 55c | 3,085$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 12c | 3,017$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 24c | 3,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 2,863$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 16c | 2,790$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 10c | 2,500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…6b97backed No | 2c | 2,434$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked No | 27c | 2,044$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…c81bbacked No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…881cbacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,998$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 61c | 1,987$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.87 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 66c | 1,952$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.03 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed No | 3c | 1,899$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Yes | 70c | 1,825$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.47 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,813$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,782$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 73c | 1,779$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.94 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…6f7bbacked No | 6c | 1,776$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 4c | 1,677$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 53c | 1,622$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.82 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked No | 43c | 1,518$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Yes | 70c | 1,423$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…238cbacked No | 35c | 1,420$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b68…b1e6backed No | 4c | 1,345$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 37c | 1,251$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.34 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 1,205$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 67c | 1,173$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 35c | 1,135$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.03 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…770bbacked No | 30c | 1,100$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 63c | 1,071$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.58 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…eab1backed No | 5c | 1,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…e48ebacked No | 2c | 1,042$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…fad8backed No | 43c | 1,030$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6648backed No | 2c | 1,030$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 68c | 1,002$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.58 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…1a25backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…8dc0backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…b775backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…2bdbbacked No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2da…a3debacked Yes | 66c | 999.99$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked No | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…197bbacked No | 54c | 999.98$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…2d6bbacked No | 5c | 979.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd6…94e6backed Yes | 65c | 970$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed No | 4c | 965$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…bf5cbacked No | 35c | 930$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b5…6a16backed No | 25c | 920.36$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…bc43backed No | 2c | 908.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 891.26$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…41dcbacked No | 43c | 883.7$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 57c | 874.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 873.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 71c | 864.68$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.73 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…0c41backed No | 6c | 855.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0959…fa99backed No | 53c | 753.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 749.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked No | 49c | 745.49$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…4953backed No | 31c | 700$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No | 26c | 699.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.59 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…71acbacked Yes | 71c | 699.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d28…6d7abacked No | 28c | 694$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…3a21backed Yes | 62c | 680.77$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…a483backed No | 2c | 652.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 77c | 650.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 3c | 615.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.