Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ab21f24cc416e95ca901db3e60c45dbf62cde28ce472f9b660ca87f8bf7c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,176,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,191,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,176,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 89,990$54,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,139.63 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 17c | 59,855$10,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,845.9 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 31c | 52,551$16,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,404.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 20c | 43,216$8,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,451.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…1e1fbacked Yes | 23c | 37,162$8,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,614.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 42c | 33,720$14,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,058.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes | 72c | 32,319$23,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,188.38 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 54c | 31,194$16,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,391.85 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…61f9backed No | 38c | 30,252$11,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,360.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 57c | 29,092$16,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,623.28 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…8283backed Yes | 70c | 25,252$17,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,575.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…3ffbbacked Yes | 59c | 25,000$14,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 61c | 24,117$14,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,615.55 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…dd5fbacked Yes | 61c | 23,425$14,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,221.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 44c | 21,840$9,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,607.88 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 31c | 20,346$6,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,376.78 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed Yes | 40c | 20,000$7,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,002.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 58c | 19,753$11,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,340.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 42c | 18,970$7,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,977 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 41c | 18,530$7,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,597.23 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 40c | 17,380$6,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,459.02 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…f4d9backed Yes | 69c | 16,973$11,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,276.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 49c | 15,242$7,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,719.97 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 50c | 15,174$7,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,604.51 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…9786backed No | 38c | 13,655$5,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,189 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed No | 32c | 13,594$4,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…456fbacked Yes | 74c | 13,557$9,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…e444backed No | 77c | 13,430$10,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,341.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…36c2backed No | 77c | 13,339$10,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,271.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 35c | 13,305$4,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,712.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 51c | 12,818$6,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,269.9 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…13d7backed Yes | 21c | 11,999$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,530.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…b66bbacked No | 49c | 11,606$5,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,688.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 60c | 11,449$6,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,574.86 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 34c | 11,411$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,866.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 56c | 11,146$6,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,226.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed No | 74c | 10,877$8,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,021.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5874backed No | 77c | 10,393$8,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,002.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes | 59c | 10,095$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,094.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 55c | 10,045$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,490.45 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…6600backed No | 64c | 9,901$6,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,326.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 68c | 9,312$6,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291.36 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 76c | 8,961$6,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,804.56 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…dca3backed Yes | 56c | 8,632$4,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,798.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1340…e38bbacked No | 45c | 8,532$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,844.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 40c | 8,290$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 67c | 8,256$5,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.32 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 26c | 8,243$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,090.67 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked No | 38c | 8,050$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed No | 41c | 8,000$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 58c | 7,669$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 52c | 7,668$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,970.55 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 18c | 7,500$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,123.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 58c | 7,190$4,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…ef2cbacked No | 50c | 7,176$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked No | 39c | 7,158$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…fe27backed Yes | 60c | 7,129$4,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 58c | 6,989$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x043a…3047backed No | 60c | 6,663$3,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 30c | 6,400$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 26c | 6,213$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.09 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 79c | 6,000$4,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,740 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 34c | 5,933$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 10c | 5,796$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 66c | 5,748$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 60c | 5,675$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.42 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b562backed No | 18c | 5,617$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…534fbacked Yes | 61c | 5,600$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 35c | 5,555$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 72c | 5,442$3,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,918.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed Yes | 30c | 5,430$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,798.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed No | 37c | 5,386$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 80c | 5,325$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.27 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Yes | 47c | 5,272$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 54c | 5,241$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.62 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 54c | 5,191$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.97 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e51abacked Yes | 62c | 5,030$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,955.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…c515backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 46c | 4,984$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.99 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9553backed No | 28c | 4,980$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 45c | 4,954$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.56 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…9413backed No | 32c | 4,899$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…d61cbacked No | 51c | 4,849$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 56c | 4,805$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.61 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 42c | 4,630$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.9 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 74c | 4,585$3,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.26 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 27c | 4,406$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 39c | 4,346$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…dc8dbacked No | 37c | 4,111$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 20c | 4,078$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.78 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Yes | 37c | 4,059$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…cde5backed No | 74c | 4,050$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfd…f371backed No | 48c | 4,025$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…2bdbbacked No | 43c | 4,014$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…8961backed Yes | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…f191backed Yes | 75c | 3,974$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.36 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +109%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked No | 41c | 3,954$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.