Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2abfc4e48334d87681240cd6a7e63c728e13973fbd68951b45bc86d6c4491e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,266,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,730,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,266,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 994 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x540d…122bbacked Yes | 3c | 57,705$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 14c | 47,500$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 73c | 43,303$31,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,541.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 42c | 40,001$16,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,879.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 42c | 38,640$16,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,366.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 19c | 31,985$5,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,993.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 13c | 27,971$3,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,636.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 25,933$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked No | 58c | 24,832$14,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,366.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…3812backed Yes | 4c | 23,557$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 13c | 22,699$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.42 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x240f…2334backed Yes | 5c | 21,777$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 0c | 21,576$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9553backed Yes | 8c | 21,397$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 14c | 17,665$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.01 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba7d…eb40backed Yes | 29c | 16,675$4,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,795.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 15,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 71c | 15,779$11,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,614.66 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 59c | 15,315$8,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,335.27 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…dfdabacked Yes | 46c | 15,075$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…48fbbacked Yes | 37c | 14,918$5,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,501.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,794$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 10c | 14,219$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 14,188$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.84 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 13,979$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.47 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…9e2bbacked No | 73c | 13,646$9,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…52fbbacked Yes | 38c | 13,131$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed Yes | 13c | 12,902$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.57 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,179$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.78 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…66b6backed Yes | 42c | 12,147$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 4c | 12,000$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 58c | 10,744$6,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,533.85 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 26c | 10,323$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.68 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…c050backed Yes | 5c | 10,194$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 65c | 9,967$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.65 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…9b98backed Yes | 3c | 9,897$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 47c | 9,548$4,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.87 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 75c | 9,147$6,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…419ebacked Yes | 63c | 7,888$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…78f2backed Yes | 49c | 7,495$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,703.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 25c | 7,181$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes | 12c | 6,941$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 55c | 6,813$3,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.74 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 59c | 6,773$4,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.63 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601a…a675backed Yes | 1c | 6,768$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,614$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b19…98f5backed Yes | 31c | 6,350$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 4c | 5,851$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5d…4e81backed Yes | 4c | 5,397$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Yes | 37c | 5,392$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed No | 76c | 5,162$3,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,003$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…aa38backed No | 65c | 4,978$3,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…b3debacked Yes | 49c | 4,873$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 69c | 4,666$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.7 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes | 38c | 4,529$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 48c | 4,501$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…5ef3backed Yes | 0c | 4,342$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…5300backed Yes | 5c | 4,237$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 65c | 4,172$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.01 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…8f6abacked Yes | 24c | 4,140$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…be60backed Yes | 8c | 4,085$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85c…50d5backed No | 58c | 4,051$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed No | 71c | 4,033$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.26 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…8937backed Yes | 9c | 3,938$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Yes | 48c | 3,849$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked No | 54c | 3,729$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,708$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…24b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,674$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 70c | 3,651$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…aa91backed Yes | 55c | 3,522$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 10c | 3,479$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.16 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed Yes | 39c | 3,399$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 32c | 3,358$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.65 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,332$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 3,274$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 16c | 3,226$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…d6f7backed No | 58c | 3,080$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…834dbacked Yes | 34c | 3,050$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…4461backed No | 53c | 3,024$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked No | 60c | 3,000$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 73c | 2,902$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.49 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd040…69c0backed No | 73c | 2,837$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ce…01f2backed Yes | 43c | 2,831$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2a42backed No | 49c | 2,817$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…534ebacked No | 57c | 2,809$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 5c | 2,805$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 32c | 2,775$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 4c | 2,753$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed No | 74c | 2,718$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,713$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 62c | 2,613$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a7c7backed No | 51c | 2,611$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…22e8backed No | 61c | 2,585$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.