TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe734…8f6a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
226
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT19150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 191 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.16
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$250
Grizzlies vs. Nuggetsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Bucks vs. Pistonsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,537.7
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$920
Timberwolves vs. Magicbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Kings vs. Warriorsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.78
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.9
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$4,000
Pelicans vs. Kingsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,784Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,783.75
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$7,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$2,500
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$761Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$761.14
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18,040Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+127.3%+$22,960
Spurs vs. Pistonsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21,898Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+108.3%+$23,722.58
Magic vs. Clippersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+108.3%+$12,999.99
Knicks vs. Bullsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11,850Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3,150
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$9,109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$9,108.77
Rockets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13,200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8,800
Kings vs. Spursbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$7,898Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$7,897.68
76ers vs. Pelicansbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$3,086.6
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$692.23
Showing 25 of 191 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,533Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,085.36
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$85,291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$85,291.38
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$964Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$964.39
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52,855Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$52,854.87
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$34.13
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22,919Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$26,905.42
All 6 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$63,999.77
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$18,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$420
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,702Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,702.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,050
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgia Tech vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,116.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.