AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b0efe3767ddd2367eedc472ee9504077c273b01515c745af4fdb43563e16ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 27c | 20,000$5,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,487.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb32…bbccbacked No | 34c | 12,181$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 6c | 10,068$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.73 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 68c | 8,921$6,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.98 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 73c | 8,229$6,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 32c | 8,074$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 4c | 8,000$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 7,853$5,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.4 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…709dbacked No | 0c | 5,533$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…2d20backed No | 38c | 5,314$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 5c | 5,000$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…d6e7backed No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 4c | 4,791$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c0…60c5backed Yes | 68c | 3,216$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 36c | 3,190$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 63c | 3,119$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.62 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 60c | 3,029$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.94 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 16c | 2,598$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.92 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 5c | 2,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.03 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 29c | 2,000$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.15 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 75c | 1,827$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…d60fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,807$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 1,709$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.07 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 62c | 1,707$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 4c | 1,670$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 63c | 1,551$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…1fc1backed Yes | 59c | 1,538$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.91 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 1,475$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.06 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 59c | 1,467$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.74 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…1d82backed No | 36c | 1,437$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,425$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed Yes | 70c | 1,383$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 17c | 1,138$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 62c | 1,050$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 68c | 1,029$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,013$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.57 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked No | 29c | 1,000$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…5062backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 67c | 999.97$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 32c | 995.04$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 32c | 991.43$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.59 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 968.55$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.59 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 12c | 890.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 51c | 886.19$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.75 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…fb1abacked Yes | 56c | 873.49$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 1c | 805.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 62c | 800$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked No | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 68c | 799.99$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…b7afbacked No | 14c | 799.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…6db0backed No | 15c | 797.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 748.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140c…bf34backed No | 15c | 739.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 39c | 721.29$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.89 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 34c | 708.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…73e8backed Yes | 71c | 704.99$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b4…95e9backed Yes | 71c | 704.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…8c8bbacked Yes | 61c | 659.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 72c | 653$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 4c | 626.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked No | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 60c | 600$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…49e4backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 67c | 600$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 36c | 591.62$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…48e7backed No | 3c | 565.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…1750backed Yes | 71c | 565.02$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…94aebacked Yes | 65c | 548.71$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 66c | 502.02$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.92 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 68c | 500$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 77c | 499.91$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 34c | 489.8$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 470.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 30c | 464.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 24c | 450$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 76c | 449.96$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…1651backed No | 34c | 435.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 60c | 420.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…0f32backed No | 19c | 415.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 73c | 404.36$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…af7fbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…c4a5backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…7778backed No | 28c | 398.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 389.79$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 29c | 386.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.